3M Open 2023 – Day 3 Betting Tips and Predictions

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Lee Hodges continued his stellar play on Friday at the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities and recorded a 7-under par round of 64 to move him to 15-under for the tournament, four strokes clear of the field.

Tyler Duncan is second on the leaderboard at 11-under, with Tony Finau, Kevin Streelman, J.T. Poston and Brandt Snedeker all tied for third at 10-under. Finau, who won last year’s title, has a chance to become the first player to win back-to-back titles at the event.

A few big names, such as Cameron Young (highest-ranked player in the field at No. 15) and Sungjae Im, missed the cut along with Justin Thomas.

In this article, we’ll provide a pair of betting tips for head-to-head matchups in the third round.

3M Open Day 3 Predictions: Head-to-head Matchups

The picks below are only for round three.

J.T. Poston over Lee Hodges @ 5/6 (-120)

Hodges has been clicking on all cylinders throughout the first few days, and there’s a decent chance he might tap the brakes on Saturday. I’m willing to take that chance with J.T. Poston, a proven PGA Tour winner, recording a better third-round score.

While Hodges’ best-ever finish is a tie for third (second-best result a T5), Poston has more experience and won the John Deere Classic last year as well as the Wyndham Championship in 2019. He also came close to another triumph at the 2021 Barbasol Championship but lost in a playoff.

The “Postman” is a much more polished player and has less pressure on him Saturday sitting five shots back of the lead. The 30-year-old came into the 3M Open in excellent form after recording back-to-back T6s at the John Deere Classic and Genesis Scottish Open, where he recorded a 65 in both third rounds.

At last week’s Open Championship, he shot a 69 in round three, and a poor 73 on Sunday resulted in a T41.

The Western Carolina product has been much better in third rounds this season than Hodges, with an average of 1.652 strokes lower.

Third-round scoring averages

• Poston: 68.786 in 14 rounds (Ranked 16th)
• Hodges: 70.438 in 16 rounds (Ranked 116th)

The Hickory, North Carolina native, Poston, also owns a better scoring average over all four rounds of tournaments.

Scoring average (actual)

• Poston: 70.29 in 76 rounds (Ranked 71st)
• Hodges: 70.62 in 87 rounds (Ranked 108th)

Hodges has been a lot streakier recently in terms of results. He had missed three of his last four cuts entering the week. The form differences between the two from the past five tournaments can be seen below.

Last five events

Poston’s last five results	Hodges’ last five results
T41 (The Open Championship)	MC (The Open Championship)
T6 (Genesis Scottish Open)	MC (Rocket Mortgage Classic)
T6 (John Deere Classic)	MC (Travelers Championship)
MC (Travelers Championship)	T25 (RBC Canadian Open)
MC (U.S. Open)	T12 (The Memorial)

In terms of the Official World Golf Ranking, Poston is 59 spots higher than Hodges.

World Rankings

• Poston: 51st
• Hodges: 110th

The 5/6 (-120) odds provided by Boyle Sportsbook in favor of Poston are a fair price for the mythical two-ball, given the categories mentioned above and overall differences in the caliber of each’s play.

Full-season results and scorecards (courtesy of ESPN) can be seen for both Poston and Hodges by clicking their names.

Doug Ghim over Alex Noren @ 20/23 (-115)

Doug Ghim sticks out in this matchup thanks to being hot since the start of May.

The University of Texas product has earned three top 20 fishes and five top 30 finishes over his last seven starts. Aside from the missed cut at the Genesis Open, which plays as a totally different setup than TPC Twin Cities, Ghim’s worse finish was a tie for 33rd over that span.

The 27-year-old got off to an uncharacteristically slow start on Thursday with a 2-over par 74 (tied for his third-worst opening round this season) and faced pressure to make the cut on Friday. He thrived under it and caught fire, posting the low round of the day (8-under 63).

Ghim currently sits in a tie for 33rd at 5-under with Alex Noren and a pack of other players.

Noren’s played a different schedule than Ghim and hasn’t participated in many of the same tournaments recently, but he’s had trouble putting consistent rounds together by missing six of his last ten cuts.

The Des Plaines, Illinois product, Ghim, has performed much better in third rounds this season than Noren and is averaging nearly a stroke better.

Third-round scoring averages

• Ghim: 69.231 in 13 rounds (Ranked 29th)
• Noren: 70.182 in 11 rounds (Ranked 95th)

Noren’s actual scoring average over all four rounds on the PGA Tour has been .68 strokes worse than Ghim’s.

Scoring Average (Actual)

• Ghim: 70.17 in 69 rounds (Ranked 56th)
• Noren: 70.85 in 62 rounds (Ranked 140th)

Since their schedules have been so different, it’s hard to compare their last five shared tournaments due to most of them being earlier in the season. While the data below (mostly different courses) isn’t crucial, here are both players’ last five third rounds.

Past five third rounds

Ghim’s last five Rd 3 scores	Noren’s last five Rd 3 scores
67 (John Deere Classic)	71 (The Open)
69 (Rocket Mortgage Classic)	67 (Rocket Mortgage Classic)
67 (Travelers Championship)	71 (The Memorial)
69 (RBC Canadian Open)	74 (Charles Schwab Challenge)
69 (Wells Fargo Championship)	70 (Valero Texas Open)

The 20/23 (-115) line provided by Bet365 siding with Ghim is valuable thanks to his play over the previous few months and his ability to go low in birdie fests.

For full scorecards and results (H/T ESPN) regarding Ghim and Noren over the course of the entire 2022-2023 season, click their names.

Remember, anything can happen during a single round of golf, and underdogs can easily upset. Please gamble responsibly.

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