3M Open 2023 – Day 4 Betting Tip and Prediction

3M Open 2023 – Day 4 Betting Tip and Prediction
Jul 27, 2023; Blaine, Minnesota, USA; Hideki Matsuyama hits his tee shot on the 11th hole during the first round of the 3M Open golf tournament. Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports/Sipa USA - Photo by Icon Sport

Lee Hodges can win for the first time on the PGA Tour if he can maintain his five-stroke lead during the final round of the 3M Open in Blaine, Minnesota.

Saturday, the 28-year-old fired a five-under round of 66 to move him to 20-under for the tournament, five shots clear of J.T. Poston (15-under) and six ahead of defending champion Tony Finau (14-under).

The scoring record will surely be broken, with the lowest winning score coming at 21-under in 2019 by Matthew Wolff.

We’ll feature a day four betting tip in this article for a head-to-head matchup scheduled for tomorrow.

3M Open Day 4 Prediction: Head-to-head Matchup

The following pick is for the 18 holes played on Sunday.

Hideki Matsuyama over Stephan Jaeger @ 5/7 (-140)

After contending for the first two days, Hideki Matsuyama had an off day on Saturday and struggled with a 2-over par 73, bringing his score to 6-under for the tournament (T39). Stephan Jaeger recorded an even-par 71 and currently sits in a tie for 49th at 5-under.

The world No. 29 in the Official World Golf Rankings, Matsuyama, is an overall better player than Jaeger (No. 105) and has consistently earned superior results this season.

Jaeger has become more comfortable on tour but has less experience (two years) and zero wins compared to his Japanese counterpart. Matsuyama has been a member of the PGA Tour for nearly a decade and has captured eight titles, including the 2020 Masters.

The Ehime, Japan native owns a better course history at TPC Twin Cities, having earned a tie for seventh in 2019. He’s averaged 3.25 strokes gained per round more at the course prior to this week in comparison to the German (H/T Ron Klos). Jaeger’s had two previous appearances, with a 66th in 2019 and a missed cut last year.

Average strokes gained per round at TPC Twin Cities (Before this week)

  • Matsuyama: 2.23
  • Jaeger: -1.02

Over the past five events where both participated in the fourth round, Matsuyama has shot lower in three of them, with one being a tie. The Tohoku Fukushi University product has outscored Jaeger by 13 cumulative strokes over that span.

Matsuyama vs. Jaeger’s last five final rounds

Tournament Matsuyama’s Rd 4 ScoreJaeger’s Rd 4 Score
Travelers Championship6674
The Memorial7676
PGA Championship7276
AT&T Byron Nelson6663
The Players Championship6870

Klos, a PGA Tour data analyst, has also compiled the statistics for the field at “high-water danger courses” since 2019. Matsuyama is gaining an average of 0.31 strokes better than Jaeger per round at these tracks.

Strokes gained average per round at high-water danger courses

  • Matsuyama: 0.67 in 60 rounds
  • Jaeger: 0.36 in 48 rounds

In terms of strokes gained total this campaign, Matsuyama is averaging 0.274 more than Jaeger in 2022-2023.

Strokes gained: Total

  • Matsuyama: 1.052 in 59 rounds (Ranked 20th)
  • Jaeger: 0.778 in 84 rounds (Ranked 34th)

Matsuyama has had a better overall season than Jaeger. He’s played a much more challenging schedule and made the cut in all four majors with results of T16 at the Masters, T32 at the U.S. Open, T29 at the PGA Championship and T13 at the Open Championship.

The results and tournament finishes for both players are featured below. Matsuyama has earned similar results (one more top 30) in fewer starts and on more difficult courses with tougher fields.

PlayerEventsCuts madeT40T30T20T10

With Matsuyama’s edge over Jaeger in the key categories mentioned above, the 5/7 (-140) price for him to defeat his competitor head-to-head tomorrow certainly holds value.

Remember, both of these players are professionals, and anything can happen during a single round. Upsets do happen, so please gamble responsibly.

Matsuyama’s 2022-23 PGA TOUR Tournaments (H/T ESPN)
9/15 – 9/18

Fortinet Championship

Silverado Resort and Spa (North Course)
T2569-72-75-65281 (-7)$55,273
10/13 – 10/16


Accordia Golf Narashino CC
T4071-69-66-71277 (-3)$40,260
10/20 – 10/23
T3471-71-71-67280 (-4)$54,180
11/10 – 11/13

Cadence Bank Houston Open

Memorial Park Golf Course
Withdrawn70-70-39179 (+4)
1/5 – 1/8

Sentry Tournament of Champions

Kapalua Resort (Plantation Course)
T2167-70-67-72276 (-16)$220,000
1/12 – 1/15

Sony Open in Hawaii

Waialae Country Club
T4868-69-65-71273 (-7)$20,250
1/25 – 1/28

Farmers Insurance Open

Torrey Pines (North Course)
T970-73-69-69281 (-7)$245,775
2/9 – 2/12

WM Phoenix Open

TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)
T2974-68-67-70279 (-5)$137,000
2/16 – 2/19

The Genesis Invitational

Riviera Country Club
Missed Cut71-73144 (+2)
3/2 – 3/5

Arnold Palmer Invitational pres. by Mastercard

Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Missed Cut71-78149 (+5)
3/9 – 3/12

THE PLAYERS Championship

TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS Stadium Course)
574-70-67-68279 (-9)$1,025,000
3/30 – 4/2

Valero Texas Open

TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)
T1570-72-68-71281 (-7)$135,725
4/6 – 4/9

Masters Tournament

Augusta National Golf Club
T1671-70-70-75286 (-2)$261,000
5/11 – 5/14

AT&T Byron Nelson

TPC Craig Ranch
T2366-67-70-66269 (-15)$80,546
5/18 – 5/21

PGA Championship

Oak Hill Country Club
T2972-71-70-72285 (+5)$90,136
6/1 – 6/4

The Memorial Tournament pres. by Workday

Muirfield Village Golf Club
T1672-65-75-76288 (E)$275,500
6/15 – 6/18

U.S. Open

Los Angeles Country Club
T3272-69-67-75283 (+3)$108,001
6/22 – 6/25

Travelers Championship

TPC River Highlands
T1369-64-65-66264 (-16)$405,000
6/29 – 7/2

Rocket Mortgage Classic

Detroit Golf Club
Missed Cut75-68143 (-1)
7/20 – 7/23

The Open

Royal Liverpool GC
T1370-72-69-70281 (-3)$232,875

Full results and scorecards for Jaeger can be seen here (courtesy of ESPN).

Subscribe to Punditfeed on Google News for all the latest updates from the world of sports!