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Lee Hodges can win for the first time on the PGA Tour if he can maintain his five-stroke lead during the final round of the 3M Open in Blaine, Minnesota.
Saturday, the 28-year-old fired a five-under round of 66 to move him to 20-under for the tournament, five shots clear of J.T. Poston (15-under) and six ahead of defending champion Tony Finau (14-under).
The scoring record will surely be broken, with the lowest winning score coming at 21-under in 2019 by Matthew Wolff.
We’ll feature a day four betting tip in this article for a head-to-head matchup scheduled for tomorrow.
3M Open Day 4 Prediction: Head-to-head Matchup
The following pick is for the 18 holes played on Sunday.
Hideki Matsuyama over Stephan Jaeger @ 5/7 (-140)
After contending for the first two days, Hideki Matsuyama had an off day on Saturday and struggled with a 2-over par 73, bringing his score to 6-under for the tournament (T39). Stephan Jaeger recorded an even-par 71 and currently sits in a tie for 49th at 5-under.
The world No. 29 in the Official World Golf Rankings, Matsuyama, is an overall better player than Jaeger (No. 105) and has consistently earned superior results this season.
Jaeger has become more comfortable on tour but has less experience (two years) and zero wins compared to his Japanese counterpart. Matsuyama has been a member of the PGA Tour for nearly a decade and has captured eight titles, including the 2020 Masters.
The Ehime, Japan native owns a better course history at TPC Twin Cities, having earned a tie for seventh in 2019. He’s averaged 3.25 strokes gained per round more at the course prior to this week in comparison to the German (H/T Ron Klos). Jaeger’s had two previous appearances, with a 66th in 2019 and a missed cut last year.
Average strokes gained per round at TPC Twin Cities (Before this week)
- Matsuyama: 2.23
- Jaeger: -1.02
Over the past five events where both participated in the fourth round, Matsuyama has shot lower in three of them, with one being a tie. The Tohoku Fukushi University product has outscored Jaeger by 13 cumulative strokes over that span.
Matsuyama vs. Jaeger’s last five final rounds
Tournament | Matsuyama’s Rd 4 Score | Jaeger’s Rd 4 Score |
Travelers Championship | 66 | 74 |
The Memorial | 76 | 76 |
PGA Championship | 72 | 76 |
AT&T Byron Nelson | 66 | 63 |
The Players Championship | 68 | 70 |
Klos, a PGA Tour data analyst, has also compiled the statistics for the field at “high-water danger courses” since 2019. Matsuyama is gaining an average of 0.31 strokes better than Jaeger per round at these tracks.
Strokes gained average per round at high-water danger courses
- Matsuyama: 0.67 in 60 rounds
- Jaeger: 0.36 in 48 rounds
In terms of strokes gained total this campaign, Matsuyama is averaging 0.274 more than Jaeger in 2022-2023.
Strokes gained: Total
- Matsuyama: 1.052 in 59 rounds (Ranked 20th)
- Jaeger: 0.778 in 84 rounds (Ranked 34th)
Matsuyama has had a better overall season than Jaeger. He’s played a much more challenging schedule and made the cut in all four majors with results of T16 at the Masters, T32 at the U.S. Open, T29 at the PGA Championship and T13 at the Open Championship.
The results and tournament finishes for both players are featured below. Matsuyama has earned similar results (one more top 30) in fewer starts and on more difficult courses with tougher fields.
Player | Events | Cuts made | T40 | T30 | T20 | T10 |
Matsuyama | 20 | 17/20 | 15 | 12 | 6 | 2 |
Jaeger | 26 | 23/26 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 2 |
With Matsuyama’s edge over Jaeger in the key categories mentioned above, the 5/7 (-140) price for him to defeat his competitor head-to-head tomorrow certainly holds value.
Remember, both of these players are professionals, and anything can happen during a single round. Upsets do happen, so please gamble responsibly.
DATE | TOURNAMENT | POS | OVERALL SCORE | EARNINGS | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
9/15 – 9/18 | Silverado Resort and Spa (North Course) | T25 | 69-72-75-65 | 281 (-7) | $55,273 |
10/13 – 10/16 | Accordia Golf Narashino CC | T40 | 71-69-66-71 | 277 (-3) | $40,260 |
10/20 – 10/23 | Congaree Golf Club | T34 | 71-71-71-67 | 280 (-4) | $54,180 |
11/10 – 11/13 | Memorial Park Golf Course | Withdrawn | 70-70-39 | 179 (+4) | — |
1/5 – 1/8 | Sentry Tournament of Champions Kapalua Resort (Plantation Course) | T21 | 67-70-67-72 | 276 (-16) | $220,000 |
1/12 – 1/15 | Waialae Country Club | T48 | 68-69-65-71 | 273 (-7) | $20,250 |
1/25 – 1/28 | Torrey Pines (North Course) | T9 | 70-73-69-69 | 281 (-7) | $245,775 |
2/9 – 2/12 | TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course) | T29 | 74-68-67-70 | 279 (-5) | $137,000 |
2/16 – 2/19 | Riviera Country Club | Missed Cut | 71-73 | 144 (+2) | — |
3/2 – 3/5 | Arnold Palmer Invitational pres. by Mastercard Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge | Missed Cut | 71-78 | 149 (+5) | — |
3/9 – 3/12 | TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS Stadium Course) | 5 | 74-70-67-68 | 279 (-9) | $1,025,000 |
3/30 – 4/2 | TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course) | T15 | 70-72-68-71 | 281 (-7) | $135,725 |
4/6 – 4/9 | Augusta National Golf Club | T16 | 71-70-70-75 | 286 (-2) | $261,000 |
5/11 – 5/14 | TPC Craig Ranch | T23 | 66-67-70-66 | 269 (-15) | $80,546 |
5/18 – 5/21 | Oak Hill Country Club | T29 | 72-71-70-72 | 285 (+5) | $90,136 |
6/1 – 6/4 | The Memorial Tournament pres. by Workday Muirfield Village Golf Club | T16 | 72-65-75-76 | 288 (E) | $275,500 |
6/15 – 6/18 | Los Angeles Country Club | T32 | 72-69-67-75 | 283 (+3) | $108,001 |
6/22 – 6/25 | TPC River Highlands | T13 | 69-64-65-66 | 264 (-16) | $405,000 |
6/29 – 7/2 | Detroit Golf Club | Missed Cut | 75-68 | 143 (-1) | — |
7/20 – 7/23 | Royal Liverpool GC | T13 | 70-72-69-70 | 281 (-3) | $232,875 |
Full results and scorecards for Jaeger can be seen here (courtesy of ESPN).
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