Aryna Sabalenka Australian Open 2023: Odds, next match and predictions

Take a look at our Aryna Sabalenka Australian Open 2023 overview right here.

Sabalenka Australian Open 2023 Odds

At the time of writing, Aryna Sabalenka is number 5 in the world as of the last WTA rankings adjustment. This 24 year old from Belarus has improved massively over the last few years, hence the position she now has. In fact, by looking at the most recent outright winner odds published by UK bookmakers, Sabalenka is the main favourite to win the Australian Open 2023. This after the world number 1 Swiatek crashed out of the tournament. Here are the odds for reference:

At 1.75 outright winner odds, down from 13.00 at the start of the tournament, the Belarusian is now the top favourite for the title. She had been excellent so far in Melbourne and her odds are only likely to continue going down. A major reason for this is that Sabalenka was the runner-up in the WTA Finals in November 2022. Since this was also an outdoor hard court event, Sabalenka showed that she’s one of the best on this surface at the moment.

Upcoming match vs Rybakina – Sabalenka Australian Open 2023

Sabalenka has now won 10 consecutive matches in January without dropping a set. She’s clearly in the best form of her life and against the world number 25 Rybakina she will fancy her chances. Sabalenka leads the head-to-head between the two 3:0. However, all of those games had gone to 3 sets and they haven’t met recently. Their most recent encounter was at the 2021 Wimbledon’s round 4.

So far Sabalenka’s power has helped her to dominate from the baseline against everyone. However, in Rybakina she meets an opponent that hits the ball from deep even harder than the Belarusian. This means that Sabalenka will likely need to be smarter and also we expect her to be approaching the net much more often in attempt to shorten the rallies. Sabalenka has won Grand Slams in doubles so she is an accomplished player at the net and so far in this tournament her volleys had been very precise and effective.

Undoubtedly the biggest issue Sabalenka has to address during this final will be her own emotions. With this her first ever Grand Slam final the Belarusian is bound to be nervous. We still think she will have the composure and the skill to win this match, but it certainly won’t be easy and another 3-set drama between these two feisty players can be expected.

Aryna Sabalenka’s Form Ahead Of 2023 Australian Open

The start of any new year in tennis is always a bit tricky when discussing form. That’s because there aren’t many tournaments running prior to the first slam of the year. Of course, this means that players aren’t competing quite as frequently as they might be at other times of the year. However, Sabalenka has been competing over in Australia last week, and her last five matches also run back into 2022 too. Here are the last five performances for a quick snapshot:

Sabalenka Form Prior to Australian Open 2023

  • Sabalenka vs Noskova – won – 6-3, 7-6
  • Sabalenka vs Begu – won – 6-3, 6-2
  • Sabalenka vs Vondrousova – won – 6-3, 7-5
  • Sabalenka vs Samsonova – won – 7-6, 7-6
  • Sabalenka vs Garcia – lost – 6-7, 4-6

So she started 2023 with a title on hard courts. The 4 consecutive wins brought her the trophy in Adelaide. Her only defeat in the last 5 was against another top 5 player Garica in the WTA Finals title-clash. Clearly the big-serving Belarusian is in great form and on the fast courts of Melbourne she has every chance to go very deep in the tournament.

Sabalenka Australian Open 2023 Results

  • Sabalenka vs Martincova – Won – 6-1, 6-4 (2023 Australia Open 1st Round)

  • Sabalenka vs Rogers – Won – 6:3, 6-1 (2023 Australian Open 2nd Round)
  • Sabalenka vs Mertens – Won – 6-2, 6-3 (2023 Australian Open 3rd Round)
  • Sabalenka vs Bencic – Won – 7:5, 6-2 (2023 Australian Open 4th Round)
  • Sabalenka vs Vekic – Won – 6-3, 6-2 (2023 Australian Open quarterfinal)
  • Sabalenka vs Linette – Won – 7-6 (1), 6-2 (2023 Australian Open semifinals)

Sabalenka is yet to be properly tested in this tournament. She is not only yet to drop a set, but she didn’t concede more than 4 games in a 9 of the 10 consecutive sets she has won so far in Melbourne.

Dominant on her own serve, covering the court very well with her long strides and hitting some powerful winners Sabalenka has looked very, very impressive so far.

In the first round won easily against Martincova, then in round 2 dismantled in less than 50 minutes the dangerous American Rogers. This was followed by an equally convincing clean win against the number 26 seed Mertens.

Then against the 12th seed Bencic Sabalenka again won cleanly. She was tested for the first time in this tournament in the opening set of this match but once she broke at a decisive stage to win 7-5 she easily stormed past set 2.

In her quarterfinal clash against Vekic the win was easy again, with Sabalenka taking charge of things from early and never looking back. She dropped only 5 games in the 2 sets combined and once again dominated on Vekic’s serve with 7 return winners hit and 14 breakpoints.

Then in the semifinal she made a slow start against Linette and lost her first service game. However, Sabalenka recovered quickly to win an easy set 1 tiebreak and then romp past set 2 in less than 25 minutes. Once again Sabalenka was very confident on her own serve, apart from very early in the match when she was clearly nervous. She also continued to be taking her returns early and cause all sorts of problems with that. The main worry was how nervous Sabalenka looked in the opening 10-15 minutes of the match. This was her first ever Australian Open semifinal, so clearly she needs to control her emotions better.

Sabalenka Injury update: Totally fine

From the information shared above, you can see that Aryna Sabalenka has been fit and healthy recently. After all, she’d have to be in order to win the Adelaide International without dropping a set. Based on this alone, it’s clear that Sabalenka is ready to roll for Melbourne this year. Adding to this statement, Sabalenka hasn’t revealed anything on social media or through mainstream media to indicate any injury woes whatsoever.

Therefore, the most logical answer to whether she is injured or suffering from any health problems would have to be a resounding no.

Sabalenka Performances At Australian Open In The Past

Despite Aryna Sabalenka being a top-ranked player since 2018, she hasn’t always pulled it together at the majors. In fact, 2018 was the very first season where Sabalenka actually competed in the main draw at all of the Grand Slams. She lost in the first round of all except the US Open, which wasn’t a great start to her top-level career. However, if we fast-forward to 2021, this is where things started to pick up.

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This was the year where Sabalenka put in her personal best at the Australian Open, reaching the 4th round for the first time. She backed this up by making the 4th round in 2022 as well. So it’s not like the Australian Open has been a disastrous tournament for Sabalenka in the past. With that said, when you consider that she made the semi-final of Wimbledon in 2021, as well as the semi-final of the US Open in both 2021 and 2022, one could easily say that she underperforms in Australia.

In our opinion, this is a little strange as the surface and conditions at the US Open are quite similar to the Australian Open. But now that she is an established player at the top of the game, we feel things will change this year.

Sabalenka Australian Open 2023 Prediction – final or winner

Of course, it’s always easy to just go with the seeding when predicting what round a player might reach in any tournament. As a quick reminder, Aryna Sabalenka is the 5th seed at the 2023 Australian Open. This puts her in the bottom half of the draw, where the only seeds above her in this half are Ons Jabeur (2) and Caroline Garcia (4). To be even more specific, she’s in the same quarter as Ons Jabeur, the number two seed.

However, Jabeur got eliminated early so this opens the draw for Sabalenka even more. She won’t be facing a player seeded higher than her as all of those are out of the tournament. She has a tricky quarterfinal against Vekic, a player she regularly loses when the two meet, but if she overcomes this challenge her path to the final is clear. Due to the form she has displays so far in Melbourne we think she will have enough to win vs Vekic and be part of the Saturday showdown for the title.

Should she make the final she will certainly fancy her chance no matter who emerges from the other side of the draw. Especially with the world number 1 Swiatek and the world number 3 Pegula now eliminated Sabalenka feels she can beat anyone. That’s why we believe that she has a very realistic chance of actually winning her first ever Australian Open title.

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