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A battle between two winless teams at Bank of America Stadium will take place between the Minnesota Vikings and Carolina Panthers at 1:00 p.m. ET Sunday.
The Panthers (0-3) were sleepless in Seattle last week and lost 37-27 to the Seahawks. The Vikings (0-3) narrowly fell 28-24 to the Chargers in Week 3 at home.
Carolina Panthers vs Minnesota Vikings – game predictions
Contents
Note: Most sportsbooks include overtime when grading the following two picks.
Prediction 1: Adam Thielen over 4.5 receptions @ -108 (1.93)
This is a revenge game for Thielen. Although there wasn’t bad blood between him and the Vikings, he’ll want to show his former organization, where he spent the first 10 years of his career, that he’s still got it.
He certainly still does have the “it” factor. The 33-year-old leads the Panthers in receptions (20), yards (211) and targets (25) and touchdowns.
Thielen game log
- Week 1 @ ATL: 2 receptions for 12 yards (2 targets)
- Week 2 vs. NOLA: 7 receptions for 54 yards (9 targets)
- Week 3 @ SEA: 11 receptions for 145 yards (14 targets)
Thielen has recorded 18 receptions over the last two weeks on 23 total targets. Week 1 was rookie quarterback Bryce Young’s first start in the NFL, and it was a rough outing.
The Minnesota State Mankato product is an excellent route runner and serves as Young’s safety blanket. He excelled last week with backup quarterback Andy Dalton. Thielen has earned a 19.4% target share and owns a 27.9% first-read share. He’s also run 72% of routes from the slot, which allows him to be targeted more often and collect more receptions.
According to FantasyPros, the Vikings played 62% of snaps in man coverage, and Thielen is garnering 42.3% of targets with a 50% first-read share when facing man coverage this campaign. He’ll also lineup against Josh Metellus in the slot, who’s allowed a 125.3 passer rating and 92.3% catch rate.
If the Vikings (favorites) do take the lead, then the game script will lead to Young having to throw the ball more, giving Thielen even more chances to hit the over.
BettingPros’ model predicts Thielen to have five receptions on Sunday, enough needed to hit the over his total. The -108 odds provided by FanDuel are eye-catching thanks to Caesars putting this line at -131 with implied odds of 56.71% that he’ll hit the over.
Prediction 2: Jordan Addison over 39.5 receiving yards @ -115 (1.87)
The No. 23 overall pick by the Vikings (first round) in 2023 was brought in to replace Adam Thielen. So far this season, he’s easily cleared 39.5 receiving yards in every outing and has an average of 61.66 yards per contest.
Addison game log
- Week 1 vs. TB: 61 yards on four receptions (6 targets)
- Week 2 @ PHI: 72 yards on three receptions (5 targets)
- Week 3 vs. LAC: 52 yards on six receptions (8 targets)
Addison doesn’t need many targets or receptions to gain yards, thanks to being a speedster and having breakaway speed with big play ability. He’s firmly the WR2 in the offense and ran a route on 76.4% of snaps in Week 3. He also received a 16% target share in Week 3 (H/T FantasyPros).
Dimers.com’s model gives Addison a 58.9% chance to hit the over on the prop.
FantasyPros’ total projections, which combine six sources such as ESPN, CBS, NFL.com, Numberfire, Fantasy Football Today and their own model, predict Addison to record 47.4 receiving yards, about eight yards more needed than his total.
BetMGM’s odds of -115 to hit over 39.5 yards hold value thanks to Caesars listing him at -135 with 57.45% implied odds he’ll eclipse the mark.
Carolina Panthers vs Minnesota Vikings odds
The Vikings are 4.5-point favorites over the Panthers. The points total is set at 46.5.
Panthers vs Vikings preview – Who claims their first win?
The Panthers didn’t have high expectations coming into the season, but the Vikings finished 13-4 and won the NFC North last season. They ended up losing as the No. 3 seed to New York (6-seed) in the Wildcard round but didn’t expect to be 0-3 at this point in the season. Should Minnesota lose, the organization would total its losses from the 2022 regular season.
Carolina form, news and injuries
The Panthers are 0-2-1 against the spread this season.
Panthers injury report
- WR Jonathan Mingo (concussion) is questionable.
- RB Miles Sanders (groin) is questionable.
- LB Frank Luvu (hip) is questionable.
Minnesota form, news and injuries
The Vikings are also 0-2-1 ATS.
Vikings injury report
- LB Marcus Davenport (ankle) is questionable.
- C Garrett Bradbury (back) is questionable.
- QB Jaren Hall (personal matter) is questionable.
- S Lewis Cine (hamstring) is out.
Panthers vs Vikings head-to-head record
The past five matchups are featured below.
| 10/17/2021 | Minnesota Vikings | 34 | @ | Carolina Panthers | 28 |
| 11/29/2020 | Carolina Panthers | 27 | @ | Minnesota Vikings | 28 |
| 12/10/2017 | Minnesota Vikings | 24 | @ | Carolina Panthers | 31 |
| 09/25/2016 | Minnesota Vikings | 22 | @ | Carolina Panthers | 10 |
| 11/30/2014 | Carolina Panthers | 13 | @ | Minnesota Vikings | 31 |
Key match details
- Date & Time: Sunday, Oct. 1 at 1:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC
- Where to watch the match in the UK: Sky Sports, FuboTV or other live stream
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