Golf

US Open 2023 – Day 3 Betting Tip and Prediction

US Open 2023 – Day 3 Betting Tip and Prediction
Photo by Michael Madrid-USA TODAY Sports/Sipa USA - Photo by Icon Sport

After two rounds at the U.S. Open Rickie Fowler leads the field at 10-under par with Wyndham Clark (9-under), Rory McIlroy (8-under) and Xander Schauffele (8-under) chasing him for first. There will surely be drama throughout the next 36 holes, and this provides plenty of opportunities to lay down some bets.

In this article, we’ll provide a U.S. Open day three betting tip for which golfer will finish as the top Spaniard.

U.S. Open Day 3 prediction: Who finishes as the top Spaniard?

Jon Rahm @ 5/9 (-180)

Spanish standings at U.S. Open

  • T39: Sergio Garcia (+1)
  • T49: Jon Rahm (+2)
  • T49: David Puig (+2)

Odds of -180 are certainly steep, and I’m usually not a fan of recommending them, but Jon Rahm is in a different class compared to the other two Spaniards in the field: his good friend Sergio Garcia and David Puig (attended Rahm’s alma mater Arizona State).

The -180 offered by Bet365 certainly presents a ton of value with other sportsbooks such as BetMGM listing Rahm at -225. The -225 has implied odds of 69.23% that Rahm will finish as the top Spaniard.

Garcia is a world-class ball striker and boasts an impressive career resume, but he’s had an up-and-down season on the LIV Tour, is 43 years old and isn’t the World No. 2 like Rahm.

Sergio Garcia/David Puig 2023 Results

TournamentGarcia Result/ScorePuig Result/Score
LIV Golf Invitational MayakobaT23 (E)T38 (+5)
LIV Golf Invitational TucsonT6 (-7)T20 (-3)
LIV Golf Invitational Orlando45 (+2)T22 (-6)
The MastersMissed cut (+7)Did not qualify
LIV Golf Invitational AdelaideT11 (-12)T32 (-7)
LIV Golf Invitational Singapore2 (-17)T33 (-3)
LIV Golf Invitational TulsaT23 (-7)T36 (-4)
LIV Golf Invitational DCT31 (E)T12 (-5)

Out of 48 golfers in the LIV events (seven tournaments this season), Garcia has earned two top 10s while Puig has earned only two top 20s. The U.S. Open is also Puig’s first major ever, and it will be difficult for him to put four consistent rounds together. 

Rahm vs. Garcia at Majors since 2019

  • Number of majors: 15
  • Rahm higher finishes: 14
  • Garcia higher finishes: 0
  • Ties: 1 (2019 PGA Championship)

Garcia missed the cut in nine of the 15 majors they played together and hasn’t finished inside the top 20 since 2021. 

In Rahm’s last 17 majors (Garcia missed two) he’s ended up in the top 15 on 11 occasions (64.7% of the time) and also has two wins. The 28-year-old has also performed excellently at U.S. Opens since 2019 earning a T3, T23, win and T12 while Garcia has finishes of: T52, cut, T19 and cut.

Rahm’s results haven’t been as consistent since his Masters victory, but he’s earned nine top 10s in 14 complete events played. Aside from a Green Jacket, the Scottsdale, Arizona resident has collected three wins this season (from January to April) at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, American Express (back-to-back starts) and the Genesis Invitational.

Jon Rahm Results 2022-2023 (H/T ESPN)

DATETOURNAMENTPOSOVERALL SCOREEARNINGS
10/20 – 10/23
T469-62-70-69270 (-14)$462,000
12/1 – 12/4
T873-71-68-71283 (-5)
1/5 – 1/8

Sentry Tournament of Champions

Kapalua Resort (Plantation Course)
164-71-67-63265 (-27)$2,700,000
1/19 – 1/22

The American Express

Pete Dye Stadium Course
164-64-65-68261 (-27)$1,440,000
1/25 – 1/28

Farmers Insurance Open

Torrey Pines (North Course)
T773-67-66-74280 (-8)$282,750
2/9 – 2/12

WM Phoenix Open

TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)
368-66-68-68270 (-14)$1,380,000
2/16 – 2/19

The Genesis Invitational

Riviera Country Club
165-68-65-69267 (-17)$3,600,000
3/2 – 3/5

Arnold Palmer Invitational pres. by Mastercard

Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge
T3965-76-76-72289 (+1)$70,029
3/9 – 3/12

THE PLAYERS Championship

TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS Stadium Course)
Withdrawn7171 (-1)
4/6 – 4/9

Masters Tournament

Augusta National Golf Club
165-69-73-69276 (-12)$3,240,000
4/13 – 4/16

RBC Heritage

Harbour Town Golf Links
T1572-64-69-68273 (-11)$335,000
4/27 – 4/30

Mexico Open

Vidanta Vallarta
267-68-61-67263 (-21)$839,300
5/18 – 5/21

PGA Championship

Oak Hill Country Club
T5076-68-72-71287 (+7)$37,625
6/1 – 6/4

The Memorial Tournament pres. by Workday

Muirfield Village Golf Club
T1670-70-74-74288 (E)$275,500
6/15 – 6/18

U.S. Open

Los Angeles Country Club
T4969-73142 (+2)

Rahm also sits first on the 2022-2023 PGA Tour FedEx Cup Rankings list ahead of Max Homa and Scheffler.

The Barrika, Spain native ranks 12th and 2nd on the PGA Tour for round three and four scoring averages (68.83 and 68.834) out of 197 players.

Rahm’s notable stats on tour

  • Strokes Gained (Total): 2.338, 2nd
  • SG Tee-to-green: 1.847, 3rd
  • SG Approach to Green: 1.062, 3rd
  • Greens In Regulation: 71.77%, 3rd
  • Scoring Average: 68.832, 2nd
  • SG Putting: .492, 17th
  • Putting average: 1.689, 2nd
  • Birdie or better conversion %: 38.16%, 2nd
  • Fairway proximity: 29’ 4, 1st
  • Eagles (Holes per): 63, 1st
  • Birdie Average: 4.84, 1st
  • Approaches from 175-225 yards: 3rd
  • Approaches from inside 100 yards: 1st

After sneaking into the weekend by making the cut on the number, Rahm has a high chance of turning things around and finishing high on the leaderboard. The 11-time PGA Tour winner’s ability as a golfer, stats and results this campaign make him an excellent choice to finish the U.S. Open as the top Spaniard.


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