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The final round of the U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club is set for a mouthwatering finish with Rickie Fowler and Wyndham Clark sharing the lead at 10-under par. Both golfers are looking for their first major win. World No. 3 Rory McIlroy (9-under) and top-ranked Scottie Scheffler (7-under) are close behind and should put up a fight.
Major championships pair up a wide range of players in different stages of their careers, and in this article, I’ll provide a day four betting tip attempting to take advantage of a lopsided head-to-head matchup.
U.S. Open Day 4 Prediction: Matchup (18 holes)
Patrick Cantlay over Padraig Harrington @ 4/7 (-175)
Before getting into why I think Patrick Cantlay will beat Padraig Harrington on Sunday, it’s important to relay this crucial piece of information: Cantlay is currently listed at -270 (10/27) on Caesars to win this matchup. No, your eyes aren’t lying to you; it is actually -270. The -175 offered by Bet365 is light years better in terms of value. It’s rare to ever see a line differentiated by practically a 100.
The -270 has implied odds of 72.97% that Cantlay will do better than Harrington in the final round.
Cantlay is currently the No. 4 ranked golfer in the Official Golf World Rankings while Harrington is No. 226. The UCLA product is in the prime of his career at 31 years old while the Northern Irishman will turn 52 in August and is a member of the PGA Tour Champions (for seniors).
The 8-time PGA Tour winner, Cantlay, takes a lot of criticism for his performances in majors, and I have agreed in the past with some of it, but he seems to have turned a corner. The California native has tended to underperform, but in his last four majors, he’s finished T14 or better and appears to have cast away some of those major demons.
Cantlay’s last four majors
- 2022 U.S. Open: T14
- 2022 Open Championship: T8
- 2023 Masters: T14
- 2023 PGA Championship: T9
The U.S. Open is the major where he’s performed the best over the course of his major career. He’s made seven appearances and never missed the cut, which includes finishing inside the top 15 each of the last two years.
The two golfers have played in two events together this season, with Cantlay finishing higher on the leaderboard in both and recording a lower final-round score.
Cantlay vs. Harrington this season
| Tournament | Cantlay result/final round score | Harrington result/final round score |
| Arnold Palmer Inv. | T4th/69 | T53rd/75 |
| PGA Championship | T9th/66 | T50th/69 |
Throughout the eight rounds in these two tournaments, Cantlay scored lower in 62.5% of them. He’s been stellar on the PGA Tour this season, earning ten top 20s in 13 events and six top 10s.
| DATE | TOURNAMENT | POS | OVERALL SCORE | EARNINGS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10/6 – 10/9 | TPC Summerlin | T2 | 67-67-60-69 | 263 (-21) | $712,000 |
1/5 – 1/8 | Sentry Tournament of Champions Kapalua Resort (Plantation Course) | T16 | 70-70-66-68 | 274 (-18) | $241,000 |
1/19 – 1/22 | Pete Dye Stadium Course | T26 | 68-66-71-65 | 270 (-18) | $58,400 |
2/9 – 2/12 | TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course) | Missed Cut | 73-70 | 143 (+1) | — |
2/16 – 2/19 | Riviera Country Club | 3 | 68-67-68-67 | 270 (-14) | $1,380,000 |
3/2 – 3/5 | Arnold Palmer Invitational pres. by Mastercard Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge | T4 | 68-71-74-68 | 281 (-7) | $800,000 |
3/9 – 3/12 | TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS Stadium Course) | T19 | 72-70-68-72 | 282 (-6) | $275,000 |
4/6 – 4/9 | Augusta National Golf Club | T14 | 71-71-68-75 | 285 (-3) | $333,000 |
4/13 – 4/16 | Harbour Town Golf Links | 3 | 69-65-66-68 | 268 (-16) | $1,380,000 |
4/20 – 4/23 | TPC Louisiana | T4 | 67-63-66-66 | 262 (-26) | — |
5/4 – 5/7 | Quail Hollow Club | T21 | 67-71-71-69 | 278 (-6) | $235,000 |
5/18 – 5/21 | Oak Hill Country Club | T9 | 74-67-72-66 | 279 (-1) | $465,000 |
6/1 – 6/4 | The Memorial Tournament pres. by Workday Muirfield Village Golf Club | T30 | 71-67-74-78 | 290 (+2) | $117,250 |
6/15 – 6/18 | Los Angeles Country Club | T15 | 71-71-67 | 209 (-1) | — |
Final round scoring averages on the PGA Tour
- Cantlay: 69.25 (12 events)
- Harrington: 71.75 (4 events)
Cantlay’s notable stats on tour (2022-2023)
- Strokes Gained (Total): 1.954, 5th
- SG Tee-to-green: 1.563, 6th
- SG Off-the-tee: 0.949, 2nd
- Driving Accuracy: 66.20%, 12th
- Total Driving: 38, 1st
- Greens In Regulation: 69.69%, 7th
- Scoring Average (Actual): 69.20, 3rd
- SG Putting: .392, 30th
- Birdie or better conversion %: 37.22%, 3rd
- Par 4 Scoring average: 3.93, 2nd
- Par 5 Scoring average: 4.41, 1st
- Birdie Average: 4.61, 2nd
Anything can happen during the final round, and it’s important to remember that no bet or prediction can ever be considered “a lock” despite what cappers on Twitter say. That being said, Harrington has had an excellent career winning three majors, but with the age difference and in comparison to Cantlay’s current form, the 2021 FedExCup champion definitely has the edge here.
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