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Thursday’s first round at the Tour Championship in Atlanta provided plenty of fireworks. Collin Morikawa was the first to hold the clubhouse lead after torching East Lake Golf Club with a 9-under par round of 61.
Morikawa, 10-under for the tournament, is tied at the top with last week’s BMW Champion Viktor Hovland as well as Keegan Bradley.
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler trails by one stroke at nine-under. The Texan began the day 10-under due to the Tour Championship’s format and started the day hot with a few birdies. Multiple bogeys, along with a triple on the 15th hole, ultimately caused him to surrender the lead.
Adam Schenk and Russell Henley round out the top five at 8-under.
We’ll provide one second-round betting prediction in this article regarding a matchup that caught our eye.
Tour Championship day 2 tip: Matchup
The head-to-head matchup pick below is for the 18 holes played on Friday. If the two players record the same score, the bet is considered a push.
Max Homa over Sam Burns @ 100/143 (-143) on Unibet
Max Homa had a blistering start to the season thanks to two wins in his first six appearances at the Fortinet Championship and Farmers Insurance Open.
Much of the talk surrounding Homa earlier this year had been about whether or not he could perform in majors, and a small slump of four missed cuts in a seven-event stretch raised question marks.
The California Berkeley product is back in fine form and silenced his doubters last month at the Open Championship with a top-10 finish. The 32-year-old has recorded three straight top-10 finishes and is coming off a tie for fifth at last week’s BMW Championship, where he led after 36 holes.
Homa matches up nicely against Sam Burns thanks to being a course fit at East Lake and thanks to his history at the track. Last year, Homa finished in third place (without starting strokes), while Burns has finished 25th and 17th in his past two appearances without starting strokes (H/T Ron Klos).
Strokes gained average per round at East Lake (2015-2022)
- Homa: 1.65 in four rounds (ranks third in this week’s field)
- Burns: -1.15 in eight rounds (ranks third-worse in this week’s field)
- Homa’s average finish: Third
- Burn’s average finish: 21st
The Burbank, California native, Homa, has been a specialist in second rounds this campaign and is averaging over two strokes better than Burns in the category.
Round 2 scoring averages
- Homa: 69.05 in 21 rounds (ranks eighth on tour)
- Burns: 71.32 in 22 rounds (ranks 153rd on tour)
The No. 7 golfer in the Official World Golf Rankings, Homa, is also averaging almost one shot better per round than Burns (No. 22 in the OWGR) in scoring average (actual) over every round played in 2022-2023.
Scoring average (actual)
- Homa: 69.26 in 78 rounds (ranks eighth on tour)
- Burns: 70.17 in 77 rounds (ranks 70th on tour)
Homa has finished higher up on the leaderboard than the LSU product in each of their past four events.
| Tournament | Homa’s Result | Burns’ Result |
| BMW Championship | T5 | T15 |
| FedEx St. Jude Championship | T6 | T52 |
| The Open Championship | T10 | Missed cut |
| Genesis Scottish Open | T12 | T19 |
The popular social media personality, Homa, has also earned a better score in the second round of the previous three tournaments each has participated in. The last time Burns had the edge was at the Scottish Open in mid-July.
| Tournament | Homa’s rd 2 score | Burns’ rd 2 score |
| BMW Championship | 62 | 70 |
| FedEx St. Jude Championship | 66 | 70 |
| The Open Championship | 73 | 75 |
| Genesis Scottish Open | 68 | 65 |
According to Data Golf, Homa has picked up strokes in nine of his last 10 events (six in a row), while Burns has gained strokes in seven of his past 10. During that span, Homa has picked up more strokes than Burns in the past four tournaments they both participated in.
In terms of strokes gained total per round, Homa is averaging about one stroke better than his counterpart.
Strokes gained total average
- Homa: 1.679 (ranks eighth)
- Burns: 0.769 (ranks 33rd)
The 100/143 (-143) odds provided by Unibet in favor of Homa performing better on Friday definitely are a fair price, thanks to the 6-time winner on tour being in excellent form.
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