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The Scottish Open at Renaissance Golf Club got off to an exciting start on Thursday, with World No. 3 Rory McIlroy becoming the early clubhouse leader at 6-under par. South Korean Byeong Hun An went on to shoot a 9-under 61 later in the day, which put him alone at the top.
Trailing him by two strokes in second place is young American Davis Riley. McIlroy and Belgian Thomas Detry are tied for third.
There are many betting opportunities this week, and we’ll provide one head-to-head matchup day two prediction below.
Scottish Open Day 2 Prediction: Head-to-head Matchup (18 holes)
The recommendation is for the 18 holes played on Friday.
Robert MacIntyre over Ewen Ferguson @ 4/6 (-150)
Both of these Scotsmen are trying to win on their home turf, but MacIntyre certainly has a more polished resume in big events and better form this season and on links courses. The 26-year-old currently sits in a T15 at 3-under, while Ferguson is tied for seventh (4-under).
MacIntyre definitely has some fire in his belly after leading at Made in Himmerland last Sunday after nine holes but failing to capitalize and instead earning a tie for fourth. At the Scottish Open on Thursday, he put on a show out of the rough, finding greens in regulation despite being in the fescue, but should drive the ball better on Friday.
The McNeese State product earned finishes of 14th and 18th in 2020 and 2021 at the Scottish Open. He’s also played well in the past three Open Championships with finishes of T6 (2019), T8 (2021) and T34 in last year’s edition.
MacIntyre has four top 10s in 2023, along with seven top 20s in 13 complete events played (withdrew round one at the Italian Open).
His fellow countryman, Ferguson, has had a solid season but is inconsistent. Before last week at the British Masters, where he tied for fourth, Ferguson had missed back-to-back cuts.
He also hasn’t seen as much success at Rennaisance Golf Club, having played it twice with finishes of 61st in 2022 and 30th in 2020.
Strokes gained: average per round at the Scottish Open from 2019-2022 (H/T Ron Klos)
- MacIntyre: 0.95
- Ferguson: 0.30
MacIntyre also is averaging a full stroke better in second rounds compared to Ferguson this season on the DP World Tour.
Second-round scoring averages (DP World Tour)
- MacIntyre: 70.46 (13 rounds)
- Ferguson: 71.46 (15 rounds)
In the last five tournaments where both players participated in the second round, MacIntyre has shot lower in four of the five (tied at the Volvo Car Scandinavian Mixed) and has recorded 16 fewer strokes than Ferguson during the span.
Head-to-head in second rounds (Past five events)
| Tournament | MacIntyre’s Rd 2 Score | Ferguson’s Rd 2 Score |
| Betfred British Masters | 70 | 71 |
| BMW International Open | 70 | 77 |
| Volvo Car Scandinavian Mixed | 75 | 75 |
| Porsche European Open | 68 | 72 |
| Magical Kenya Open | 65 | 69 |
Looking at the data for strokes gained at links courses since 2014 put together by PGA Tour data analyst Ron Klos, MacIntyre has played 22 more rounds and is averaging .81 more strokes gained than Ferguson during that span. Only 13 players in the current field have outperformed him.
Strokes gained: average on links courses (2014-2023)
- McIntyre: 1.23 (58 rounds)
- Ferguson: 0.41 (36 rounds)
The 4/6 (-150) line provided by Boyle Sportsbook in favor of McIntyre to win the mythical two-ball (head-to-head matchup) is priced fairly with his advantages and overall edge.
Official World Golf Ranking
- MacIntyre: 104th
- Ferguson: 134th
Remember, anything can happen over the course of 18 holes. These players are professionals, and underdogs can win at any time, so please gamble responsibly.
If you’re interested in seeing both players’ complete results, take a look at the following tournament logs.
| DATE | TOURNAMENT | POS | OVERALL SCORE | EARNINGS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1/19 – 1/22 | Yas Links | T20 | 70-70-69-69 | 278 (-10) | — |
1/26 – 1/30 | Emirates Golf Club | T38 | 70-69-69-73 | 281 (-7) | — |
2/9 – 2/12 | Laguna National Golf Club | Missed Cut | 74-72 | 146 (+2) | — |
2/16 – 2/19 | Amata Spring CC | T57 | 68-73-70-72 | 283 (-5) | — |
2/23 – 2/26 | DLF Golf and Country Club | T37 | 74-74-71-72 | 291 (+3) | — |
3/9 – 3/12 | Muthaiga GC | T7 | 71-65-65-70 | 271 (-13) | — |
4/20 – 4/23 | PGM Ishioka GC | T6 | 66-72-67-64 | 269 (-11) | — |
4/27 – 4/30 | Jack Nicklaus Golf Club Korea | T7 | 69-70-69-72 | 280 (-8) | — |
5/4 – 5/7 | Marco Simone GC | Withdrawn | 73 | 73 (+2) | — |
6/1 – 6/4 | Green Eagle Golf Course | T14 | 76-68-74-73 | 291 (-1) | — |
6/8 – 6/11 | Ullna GC | Missed Cut | 71-75 | 146 (+2) | — |
6/22 – 6/25 | Golfclub München Eichenried | T18 | 72-70-69-72 | 283 (-5) | — |
6/29 – 7/2 | The Belfry | T39 | 70-70-72-76 | 288 (E) | — |
7/6 – 7/9 | Himmerland Golf & Spa Resort | T4 | 64-68-66-71 | 269 (-11) | — |
| DATE | TOURNAMENT | POS | OVERALL SCORE | EARNINGS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1/19 – 1/22 | Yas Links | 64 | 69-71-73-74 | 287 (-1) | — |
1/26 – 1/30 | Emirates Golf Club | T28 | 71-68-72-69 | 280 (-8) | — |
2/2 – 2/5 | Al Hamra GC | T51 | 70-72-71-72 | 285 (-3) | — |
2/9 – 2/12 | Laguna National Golf Club | Missed Cut | 70-72 | 142 (-2) | — |
2/16 – 2/19 | Amata Spring CC | Missed Cut | 70-73 | 143 (-1) | — |
3/9 – 3/12 | Muthaiga GC | T47 | 70-69-69-71 | 279 (-5) | — |
3/16 – 3/19 | St. Francis Links | T3 | 72-70-68-68 | 278 (-10) | — |
3/23 – 3/26 | The Club at Steyn City | T4 | 66-69-66-68 | 269 (-19) | — |
5/4 – 5/7 | Marco Simone GC | Missed Cut | 75-73 | 148 (+6) | — |
5/11 – 5/14 | Rinkven International GC | T33 | 71-69-67-70 | 277 (-7) | — |
5/25 – 5/28 | Bernardus Golf Club | T8 | 71-71-71-68 | 281 (-7) | — |
6/1 – 6/4 | Green Eagle Golf Course | T14 | 71-72-72-76 | 291 (-1) | — |
6/8 – 6/11 | Ullna GC | Missed Cut | 71-75 | 146 (+2) | — |
6/22 – 6/25 | Golfclub München Eichenried | Missed Cut | 71-77 | 148 (+4) | — |
6/29 – 7/2 | The Belfry | T4 | 69-71-73-68 | 281 (-7) | — |
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