Scottish Open 2023 – Day 1 Betting Tips and Predictions

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The Scottish Open at Renaissance Golf Club has arrived and should put on a stern test to prepare many of the top players for next week’s Open Championship. Xander Schauffele will attempt to defend his title with World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler in the field, which features eight of the top 10 players in the Official World Golf Rankings.

There will be two betting tips ahead of day one provided in this article for tournament finishes.

Scottish Open Day 1 Predictions: Tournament Finishes (72 holes)

The following top finishes are for all 72 holes.

Tommy Fleetwood to finish top 30 @ 50/69 (-138)

Fleetwood has come so close to winning his first PGA Tour event over the years and this season. The Englishman will play in the U.K. this week and has a high chance of finishing inside the top 30.

At this event, Fleetwood has put together excellent results since making his debut three years ago, never finishing outside the top 30.

Fleetwood Scottish Open Results

• 2022: 4th
• 2021: 26th
• 2020: 2nd
• Average finishing position: 10.7

The Southport, England, native comes into the week in excellent form. At the Travelers Championship, his most recent event, Fleetwood had an uncharacteristically missed cut but before that, earned a tie for fifth at the U.S. Open and a solo second at the RBC Canadian Open after losing in a playoff to Nick Taylor.

In 16 starts in 2022-2023, the 32-year-old has finished inside the top 30 on 10 occasions (62.5% of the time). His recent form dating back to March, has been even more consistent, with seven top 30s in his prior 10 appearances (70%).

Fleetwood is a links golf specialist. He’s more experienced in the category compared to many in the field, and since 2014, he ranks fourth in the field in “strokes gained: average” on links style courses (1.77). Only Jordan Spieth, Xander Schauffele and Viktor Hovland have averaged more but in significantly fewer rounds played (H/T Ron Klos).

Going back to 2014, here are the comprehensive Strokes Gained data rankings for the #GenesisScottishOpen field which covers every round played on links courses, including each Open Championship course, Alfred Dunhill Links courses, Hillside, Yas Links, Fairmont St. Andrews, Al… pic.twitter.com/Sh2k90EAXg

— Ron Klos (@PGASplits101) July 11, 2023

Currently, Fleetwood is the eighth betting favorite at 20/1 to win the Scottish Open outright. This implies oddsmakers are expecting him to easily finish inside the top 30.

The 50/68 (-138) odds provided by Bet365 for a top 30 finish are much better compared to other books such as Paddy Power and Betfair, where he’s at 8/13 (-162). The -162 gives him implied odds of 61.83% to earn a top 30.

If you’re interested in seeing Fleetwood’s full results this season, click here.

Justin Rose to finish top 40 @ 4/5 (-125)

I’m backing another Englishman for a tournament finish bet, with Justin Rose receiving an excellent number at -125 to collect a top 40 right next to his home country.

The 42-year-old has been one of the best players on the planet this campaign. In 17 starts, Rose has earned 13 top-40 finishes (76.5%). What’s even more mind-boggling is his finishes outside the top 40 have come as a result of four missed cuts. When he’s made the cut, he hasn’t finished outside of the top 40.

Another impressive stat that helps his case this week is he’s only finished outside the top 30 once when he qualifies for the weekend. Rose is coming off a tie for fourth last week at the BetFred British Masters and has earned three top 10s in his last four events that weren’t a major.

Despite a 69th at last year’s Scottish Open, Rose’s game does fit the course, and his accurate driver (24th on tour, 63.91% of fairways) should give him an advantage. The major champion has really turned things around this season and ranks high in most major strokes gained categories.

Rose’s key strokes gained stats

• SG Total: 12th
• SG Approach to Green: 13th
• SG Putting: 22nd