Scottish Open 2023 – Day 4 Betting Tips and Predictions

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The final round of the 2023 Scottish Open at Renaissance Golf Club will produce quite the storyline at its conclusion, with Rory McIlroy leading the way at 13-under par, one stroke ahead of Tom Kim and two better than Tommy Fleetwood and Brian Harman.

The Northern Irishman, McIlroy, is seeking his PGA Tour win of the calendar year, while Fleetwood can win his maiden PGA Tour event. A victory for Tom Kim would put a bright spot on what has been a rather subpar 2023 for the South Korean after winning in August and October of last year.

There will be two final-round betting tips below for head-to-head matchups that appear a little uneven.

Scottish Open Day 4 Predictions: Head-to-head Matchups (18 holes)

The following day four picks are for the 18 holes played on Sunday (not the entire tournament).

Yannik Paul over Sean Crocker @ 20/31 (-155)

This matchup caught my eye because of the massive skill gap between the two. Yannik Paul is a household name on the DP World Tour and is ranked 102nd in the Official World Golf Rankings, while Sean Crocker is ranked 231st and has trouble even making the weekend on the DP World Tour.

Paul has made 13-of-15 cuts this season and has reached the weekend in 12 consecutive tournaments. He’s earned two top 10s in his last three starts and has been very close to a win with back-to-back solo second-place finishes in February.

Crocker has played in 17 events, including this week, and has either missed the cut, been disqualified, or withdrawn in nine of them.

Yannik Paul Results

• Events: 15
• Made cut: 13
• Top 3s: 3
• Top 10s: 5
• Top 25s: 6
• Top 40s: 8

Sean Crocker Results

• Events: 17
• Made cut: 10
• Top 3s: 1
• Top 10s:1
• Top 25s: 2
• Top 40s: 3

The 29-year-old Frankfurt, Germany native is one of the best on the DP World Tour for total strokes gained this campaign. Paul dominates Crocker in the category and is picking up nearly a full stroke more than his fellow competitor.

Total strokes gained on the DP World Tour 

• Paul: 1.35 in 51 rounds (ranked 7th)
• Crocker: 0.45 in 37 rounds (ranked 54th)

Paul also owns a better scoring average than Crocker in Europe.

Total scoring average on DP World Tour

• Paul: 70.31 in 55 rounds (ranked 17th)
• Crocker: 71.03 in 36 rounds (ranked 64th)

The differences between the pair are huge, and the 20/31 (-155) line in favor of Paul on William Hill should probably be closer to 1/2 (-200).

Through three days at the Scottish Open, both players are tied for 29th at 6-under par. If you’d like to see Paul and Crocker’s full results this season, click the hyperlink on their names (courtesy of ESPN).

Jordan Smith over Romain Langasque @ 2/3 (-150)

Jordan Smith has been one of the better players on links tracks since 2014 and has outperformed Romain Langasque. After three rounds at the Scottish Open, both players sit in a tie for 39th at 5-under.

The Englishman has picked up 0.58 strokes on average more than the Frenchman since 2014 at links style courses (H/T Ron Klos).

Strokes gained: average on links courses (2014-2023)

• Smith 0.93 (69 rounds)
• Langasque: 0.35 (55 rounds)

The 30-year-old also has a higher strokes gained average at Renaissance Golf Club since 2019 compared to Langasque.

Strokes gained: average per round at the Scottish Open from 2019-2022 (H/T Ron Klos)

• Smith: 0.61
• Langasque: 0.29

Smith’s final-round scoring average this season has been nearly a stroke better than Langasque’s on the DP World Tour.

Final-round scoring averages (DP World Tour)

• Langasque: 70.2 (15 rounds)
• Smith: 69.36 (11 rounds)

The 94th-ranked player in the world (Smith) has been given a decent price at 2/3 (-150) to outduel Langasque (ranked 137th) on Sunday.

Remember, upsets can easily occur during one round of golf, so please gamble responsibly. The complete tournament logs for both players can be seen below.

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