PGA Championship 2023 – Tournament Betting Tips and Predictions

PGA Championship 2023 – Tournament Betting Tips and Predictions
Photo by Icon Sport

All eyes of the golf world will be on the PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club this week for the season’s second major. Nearly all of the top talents, 99 players in the top 100 Official World Golf Rankings, will tee it up Thursday in the 156-player field in hopes of securing the Wanamaker Trophy come Sunday evening.

In this article, we’ll provide three PGA Championship tips including a top 20, top 40 and head-to-head prediction.

PGA Championship tournament finish predictions (72-holes)

The following top 20 pick is for the finishing position of the full event.

Xander Schauffele to finish Top 20 @ 20/23 (-115)

The “X-Man” enters the PGA Championship in spectacular form. In 12 full tournaments played this season, Schauffele has recorded 10 top 20 finishes which means he’s finished in the top 20 83.3% of the time. This is excluding his one withdrawal at the Sentry Tournament of Champions when he was forced to call it quits after 26 holes due to injury.

The 29-year-old finished in solo second during his last start at the Wells Fargo Championship (elevated event) and has made five top 20s in a row. Consistency is Schauffele’s specialty. He’s currently the leader in consecutive cuts on the PGA Tour with 24.

Schauffele is known for his excellent play in majors although he hasn’t won one yet. 

  • Majors played: 23
  • Top 20s: 16
  • Top 20 percentage: 69.6%

In three of his past four PGA Championship appearances, the La Jolla, California native has finished T16 or higher. Last year at Southern Hills he finished T13. 

Schauffele Notable Stats

  • Approaches (150-175 yds): 1st
  • Eagles (Holes per): 2nd
  • Strokes Gained Total: 4th
  • SG (Approach to green): 5th
  • SG (Tee-to-green): 7th
  • SG (Putting): 19th
  • Scoring average: 6th
  • Greens in regulation: 19th
  • Putting average: 19th
  • Par 4 scoring: 13th
  • Birdie average: 21st
  • Scrambling: 27th

Oak Hill is a great course fit for Schauffele, and if you’re high on him to win, he’s available between 12-1 to 16-1 as the fourth favorite to win the event.

Talor Gooch to finish Top 40 (1/1, +100)

The LIV Golf Tour has drawn a plethora of critics for many reasons including the strength of its fields. The tournaments aren’t filled with as many stars as the PGA Tour’s elevated events but are much stronger than many regular events.

Talor Gooch comes into the week as one of the hottest golfers on the planet after winning back-to-back LIV events (LIV Adelaide and LIV Singapore) during the last two weeks of April.

Gooch LIV Stats (2022 and 2023 seasons)

  • Starts: 14
  • Top 10s: 7
  • Wins: 2

Before he switched over to LIV, Gooch was playing well on the PGA Tour. During 2021-2022, the University of Oklahoma product recorded 10 Top 20s and 13 Top 40s in 20 PGA Tour events (including majors). 

Gooch even won the 2021 RSM Classic (PGA Tour) which gives him three wins in about 2.5 years and finished in a T5 in the strongest of fields, The 2021 Players.

At last year’s PGA Championship, the 31-year-old finished T20 at 1-over par, six strokes behind winner Justin Thomas. At the 2023 Masters, he finished in a T34.

In his previous six majors, Gooch has finished inside the top 40 five times (83.3%).

Gooch last six majors

  • 2021 Open Championship: T33
  • 2022 Masters: T14
  • 2022 PGA Championship: T20
  • 2022 U.S. Open: Cut
  • 2022 Open Championship: T34
  • 2023 Masters: T34

The odds for Gooch to win outright at the PGA Championship are between 60 to 80-1 depending on the book. He currently ranks 26th-29th in terms of being favored to win.

A top 40 at even money on Ladbrokes offers value. He’s being offered at -125 on other websites.

Head-to-head matchup tip

The following matchup is for which golfer finishes with the lower score over the span of the entire tournament.

Rickie Fowler over Si Woo Kim @ 2/3 (-150)

Rickie Fowler is enjoying a resurgence this season after struggling the last few years and falling down the Official Golf World Rankings. After playing well, he’s moved back into the top 50 at No. 49.

Despite missing some majors, including the 2023 Masters, the five-time PGA Tour winner hasn’t missed a PGA Championship since his debut in 2010 and is making his 14th appearance at the event.

Fowler PGA Championship results


The former Oklahoma State Cowboy has an impressive track record reaching the top 20 in four of his last five appearances.

PGA Championship betting tips and predictions
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports/Sipa USA Photo by Icon Sport

Fowler has made 46 starts in major championships and has yet to win but has come extremely close finishing in the top five 11 times including three second-place finishes.

This year on the PGA Tour, the former Players champion has played in 13 events and has finished outside of the top 20 on just four occasions with only a single missed cut (he’s made 12 made cuts in a row) at the Shriners Children’s Open in October. Fowler has finished inside the top 15 in four consecutive starts.

Fowler Notable Stats

  • Strokes Gained Total: 11th
  • SG (Approach to green): 7th
  • SG (Tee-to-green): 16th
  • SG (Putting): 39th
  • Scoring average: 15th
  • Total Driving: 31st
  • Greens in regulation: 31st
  • Putting average: 13th
  • Par 3 scoring avg: 3rd
  • Par 4 scoring: 16th
  • Birdie average: 12th
  • Scrambling from rough: 8th

Fowler vs. Kim head-to-head this season

TournamentFowler’s resultKim’s Result
Shriner’s Children’s OpenCutT8
Zozo ChampionshipT2T45
CJ Cup (South Carolina)T34T52
The American ExpressT54T22
Farmer’s Insurance OpenT11T25
WM Phoenix OpenT10T25
The Genesis InvitationalT20Cut
Arnold Palmer InvitationalT31T39
The Players ChampionshipT13T27
Valero Texas OpenT10T39
RBC HeritageT15Cut
Wells Fargo ChampionshipT14T43

Fowler leads Kim in head-to-head matchups (10-2) and has earned a better result in eight straight starts.

The Murrieta, California native has also finished higher than Kim in six of the last seven PGA Championships (6-1 head-to-head).

Si Woo Kim PGA Championship Results compared to Fowler

  • 2016: Cut (Worse)
  • 2017: Withdraw (Worse)
  • 2018: Cut (Worse)
  • 2019: Cut (Worse)
  • 2020: T13 (Better)
  • 2021: Cut (Worse)
  • 2022: T60 (Worse)

Based on the results of the two at the tournament and this season, the 2/3 (-150) line in favor of Fowler appears to be way too low and should likely be closer to 1/2 (-200).

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