LIV Golf Invitational Valderrama - Day 3 Betting Tips and Predictions

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Prediction 1

Patrick Reed over Paul Casey Head-to-head matchup (18 holes)

5/7 (-140)

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Odds from

Prediction 2

Sergio Garcia over Thomas Pieters Head-to-head matchup (18 holes)

2/3 (-150)

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Odds from

The final round of LIV Valderrama should provide a scintillating finish as Bryson DeChambeau leads by one stroke at 9-under par. Talor Gooch trails at 8-under, followed by Brooks Koepka (-6) and Dustin Johnson (-4).

DeChambeau is in search of his first LIV victory and triumph on any tour since March 2021. Gooch has already won back-to-back tournaments this season and PGA Championship winner Koepka has two LIV wins over 2022 and 2023.

In this article, we’ll provide two final-round betting tips that caught our eye.

LIV Valderrama Day 3 prediction: Head-to-head matchup

Contents

1 LIV Valderrama Day 3 prediction: Head-to-head matchup
- 1.1 Patrick Reed over Paul Casey @ 5/7 (-140)
- 1.2 Sergio Garcia over Thomas Pieters @ 2/3 (-150)

This head-to-head matchup tip is only for Sunday’s 18 holes.

Patrick Reed over Paul Casey @ 5/7 (-140)

“Captain America” has played pretty consistent golf this season and has contended in the majority of tournaments he’s played in, whether it be on LIV, in a major or on the DP World Tour.

Paul Casey, on the other hand, has endured a slump of poor performances for most of LIV’s campaign. Aside from a fourth-place finish in the opener at Mayakoba, the Englishman has only earned one finish inside the top 30.

Reed has already accumulated four top-four finishes, including a second at the Dubai Desert Classic, where he lost by one stroke to Rory McIlroy, and a tie for fourth at the Masters. He also finishes on average 10.7 spots higher on leaderboards than Casey at LIV Events.

Average finishing position (LIV only)

Reed: 17.3
Casey: 28

Reed never warrants major media attention or a spotlight and has been labeled by many fans and pundits as an “antagonist.” Anyone who remembers his Ryder Cup performances and was cheering for the U.S. would probably say otherwise.

This season he’s made the cut at all three majors with finishes of T4 (Masters), T18 (PGA Championship) and T56 (U.S. Open). In 2023, he is averaging 0.64 strokes less than Casey during final rounds.

Final round scoring averages (All tournaments)

Reed: 68.36 (11 rounds)
Casey: 69 (six rounds)

In tournaments the two have participated in together, Reed has recorded a lower third-round score than Casey in four of the six (66.6%). The Augusta State product has also earned a better result in five of the six events (83.3%), including the past five in a row.

Reed vs. Casey head-to-head (LIV)

Tournament	Reed Rd 3 Score	Casey Rd 3 Score	Reed Result	Casey Result
LIV Mayakoba	74	70	T38	4th
LIV Tucson	66	70	T18	T24
LIV Orlando	67	71	T3	T31
LIV Adelaide	65	71	T3	39th
LIV Singapore	67	63	T13	T30
LIV Tulsa	64	69	T11	T40

Reed is also much higher in the Official World Golf Rankings at 47th, compared to Casey at 177th. LIV golfers haven’t been able to receive world ranking points, so Reed should probably be a lot higher.

The 5/7 (-140) odds provided by Unibet in favor of the major champion are juicy in regard to the two players’ form this year. For their results from the entire season, click the links below.

Full season results

Sergio Garcia over Thomas Pieters @ 2/3 (-150)

As I stated in yesterday’s day two prediction, it’s an easy choice to back Sergio Garcia when he’s playing in his home country. After rolling with him over Dean Burmester and coming out successful by three strokes, my gut is telling me to ride with him again. This time over Thomas Pieters.

Burmester’s name doesn’t pop out compared to Pieters, but Garcia actually faces an easier matchup this time around and has better odds at 2/3 (-150) compared to yesterday’s 20/33 (-165).

Apologies in advance for any information that might sound slightly repetitive regarding Garcia.

The Spaniard has three wins at Real Golf Club Valderrama at the Andalucia Masters (2011, 2016, 2017) as well as three runner-up finishes (One in a playoff at the 2004 Volvo Masters). He’s also earned 14 top-10 finishes in 15 appearances as a professional at the venue, according to LIV Golf’s official website.

El Niño has a significant edge over the Belgian this season in the final round of events. He’s averaging nearly two strokes better.

Final Round Scoring Averages (All tournaments)

Garcia: 69.63 (Eight rounds)
Peters: 70.44 (Nine rounds)

The Borriol, Spain native has shot lower in the final round in three-consecutive tournaments than Pieters. He’s also earned a better finish in five of the seven events (71.4%) they played in together

Garcia vs. Pieters head-to-head (LIV)

Tournament	Garcia Rd 3 Score	Pieters Rd 3 Score	Garcia Result	Pieters Result
LIV Mayakoba	72	71	T23	T32
LIV Tucson	73	70	T6	T33
LIV Orlando	68	67	45	T16
LIV Adelaide	68	70	T11	T32
LIV Singapore	67	69	2*	T23
LIV Tulsa	65	67	T23	T16
LIV DC	74	N/A	T31	Withdrew (After Rd 2)

*Lost in a playoff

Garcia has contended much more than Pieters, as shown in the table above. Pieters hasn’t finished higher than tied for 16th this year, and Garcia almost won LIV Singapore but fell to Talor Gooch on the first playoff hole.

Average finishing position (LIV only)