LIV Golf Invitational Valderrama – Day 1 Betting Tip and Prediction

LIV Golf Invitational Valderrama – Day 1 Betting Tip and Prediction
Photo by Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports/Sipa USA - Photo by Icon Sport

The LIV Golf Invitational Series heads to Valderrama, Spain, this weekend from June 30-July 2. The host course, Real Club Valderrama, has hosted prestigious events such as the 1997 Ryder Cup, WGC-American Express (1999-2000) and Andalucia Masters.

Australian Cameron Smith is the betting favorite at 7/1 to win the tournament, with Brooks Koepka (8/1) right behind him. Three Spaniards will tee it up in their home country, including Sergio Garcia (12/1), Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra (55/1) and David Puig (120/1).

There will be plenty of wagering opportunities over the next three days, so we’ll provide a day-one betting tip worth taking a look at.

LIV Valderrama Day 1 prediction: Who will finish top Spaniard?

The following wager is for which Spanish golfer will finish highest on the leaderboard.

Sergio Garcia to finish top Spaniard @ 5/8 (-160)

The 43-year-old is playing “in his backyard” this week at Valderrama. Garcia has vast experience at the track and has three wins at the Andalucia Masters (hosted eight times by Real Club Valderrama) in 2011, 2016 and 2017.

The Ryder Cup hero has 15 starts as a pro at the course and has accumulated top-10 finishes on 14 occasions. He’s also captured second place three times which includes a playoff loss in 2004 to Ian Poulter (Volvo Masters).

Garcia has been playing the course since he was a teenager and told LIV’s official website he thinks he was 13 the first time he played it. He also stated, “It was love at first shot.”

The major champion comes into the event in solid form. In his last event, the U.S. Open, he finished in a tie for 27th at 2-over after posting rounds of 70, 71, 71 and 70. Garcia came close to his first LIV victory back in late April when he finished solo-second at the LIV Golf Invitational Singapore (Sentosa) but fell short in a playoff to American Talor Gooch. He posted rounds of 65, 44 and 67 to finish at 17-under.

The 36-time worldwide winner (11 triumphs on the PGA Tour) doesn’t face stiff competition for the top Spaniard this week. Lopez-Chacarra and Puig are far less experienced and haven’t been producing great results on LIV.

Puig has only finished lower than 20th on one occasion in eight events played this season (U.S. Open included). Lopez-Chacarra has just two starts with finishes of T20 and T36. Garcia has two top 6s, three top 11s and has finished worse than 23rd in just 2-of-7 starts on LIV.

Average finishes on LIV

  • Garcia: Rank 13th, Average finish: 20.1 (seven events)
  • Puig: Rank 23rd, Average finish: 27.6 (seven events)
  • Lopez-Chacarra: Rank 33rd, Average finish: 26.3 (two events)
Garcia’s 2023 LIV Results (H/T ESPN)
2/24 – 2/26

LIV Golf Invitational Mayakoba

El Camaleón Golf Course at Mayakoba
T2372-69-72213 (E)
3/17 – 3/19

LIV Golf Invitational Tucson

The Gallery Golf Club
T668-65-73206 (-7)
3/31 – 4/2

LIV Golf Invitational Orlando

Orange County National
4571-76-68215 (+2)
4/21 – 4/23

LIV Golf Invitational Adelaide

The Grange Golf Club
T1168-68-68204 (-12)
4/28 – 4/30

LIV Golf Invitational Singapore

Sentosa Golf Club (Serapong Course)
2-y65-64-67196 (-17)
5/12 – 5/14

LIV Golf Invitational Tulsa

Cedar Ridge Country Club
T2368-70-65203 (-7)
5/26 – 5/28

LIV Golf Invitational DC

Trump National Golf Club
T3170-72-74216 (E)

The -160 (5/8) being offered by Bet365 provides excellent value compared to other sportsbooks such as Bovada and 10bet where he’s listed at -200 (1/2) to finish as the top Spaniard. With Garcia’s vast experience at the course, good form and high finishes over the year, there’s an excellent chance he’ll beat the other two inexperienced Spanish players.

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