The John Deere Classic 2023 – Day 3 Betting Tip and Prediction

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The John Deere Classic might be considered one of the less prestigious events on the PGA Tour’s calendar, but the 2023 edition is set up for an exciting battle with 36 holes left to play.

World No. 19 Cameron Young, who is looking for his first win, leads the way at 13-under par, with Garrick Higgo, Adam Schenk and Brendan Todd tied for second place two strokes behind. A pack of four players, including talented rookie Ludvig Aberg and Denny McCarthy (World No. 34), are three back in a tie for fifth.

Schenk and McCarthy have knocked on the door many times, and both have playoff losses this year, resulting in second-place finishes, while the Swede, Aberg, attempts to triumph in just his seventh start as a professional on tour.

A day three betting tip for a matchup we believe is lopsided will be provided in this piece.

John Deere Classic Day 3 Prediction: Head-to-head Matchup

This head-to-head matchup is for the 18 holes played on Saturday.

Doug Ghim over Matt Nesmith @ 20/27 (-135)

One of the many major components to successfully betting a head-to-head matchup is current form, and Doug Ghim and Matt Nesmith have played well on polar opposite sides of the calendar in 2022-2023.

Ghim has excelled since the start of May over his last six events making all six cuts (recorded finishes of 33rd or better) and has earned four top 20s in his last five events. He started the season off poorly, whereas Nesmith began hot but missed his last three cuts leading up to the event.

The University of Texas product, Ghim, is averaging 1.16 strokes better than Nesmith in third rounds this campaign.

Third-round scoring averages

• Ghim: 69.42, ranked 40th (12 rounds measured)
• Nesmith: 70.58, ranked 121st (12 rounds measured)

Ghim has also finished higher in his last five events in which both players participated.

Ghim vs. Nesmith last five tournaments

Tournament	Ghim’s result	Nesmith’s result
Rocket Mortgage Classic	T33	MC
Travelers Championship	T15	MC
AT&T Byron Nelson	T19	T30
Wells Fargo Championship	T27	T35
RBC Heritage	T54	T59

In terms of course form, strokes gained and experience at the John Deere Classic, Ghim edges out Nesmith.

Ghim has played TPC Deere Run twice since 2015, missing the cut in 2022 and earning an 18th place finish in 2021, while Nesmith teed it up once in 2021 and finished 50th.

Strokes gained average at TPC Deere Run (2015-2022, H/T Ron Klos)

• Ghim: 0.75
• Nesmith: 0.30

In 2022-2023, Ghim ranks 88th in total strokes gained: total (0.188), while Nesmith is 102nd (0.032). In birdie fests like this week, greens in regulation are crucial, and Ghim also performs better slightly better in the category.

Greens in regulation

• Ghim: 19th (68.61%)
• Nesmith: 52nd (66.92%)

The 20/27 (-135) odds offered by BoyleSports’ bookmakers in favor of Ghim could be a lot steeper if offered on other sportsbooks thanks to Ghim being one of the better players on tour since May and his advantage in third rounds this season over Nesmith.

Remember, anything can happen over the course of 18 holes, so please gamble responsibly. All of these players are extremely talented, and as we saw in round one with Jonas Blixt’s 9-under 62, underdogs can light it up anytime on the PGA Tour.

If you’re interested in seeing both players’ full tournament logs, they can be viewed below.

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