BMW PGA Championship 2023 picks – top betting tips and predictions

BMW PGA Championship 2023 picks – top betting tips and predictions
Nicolai Hojgaard tees off on the 18th during the Pro-Am ahead of the 2023 BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth Golf Club in Virginia Water, Surrey. Picture date: Wednesday September 13, 2023. - Photo by Icon Sport

The flagship event of the DP World Tour, the BMW PGA Championship, will host a number of the world’s best players, including all 12 members of the European Ryder Cup team this week.

The tournament will be held at Wentworth Club in Virginia Water, Surrey, England from Sept. 14-17.

Northern Irishman Shane Lowry looks to defend his title this week after winning in exciting fashion in 2022 at 17-under, narrowly beating out Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy by a stroke.

BMW PGA Championship tips

The two predictions below are for the entire 72 holes of the championship.

Nicolai Hojgaard to finish top 30 @ +100 (2.0)

It’s been a fantastic year for the newly named European Ryder Cup team member. After recording back-to-back top-five finishes in his last two events to cap off a well-rounded season, Luke Donald selected him as a captain’s pick.

The Dane opened his season with a solo second at the Corales Punta Cana Championship and has recorded four top-30 finishes in his last five starts on the PGA tour. He’s also earned top-20 finishes in three of his last four starts on the DP World Tour.

Hojgaard finish percentages on the DP World Tour

  • Top 30: 63.6% (7/11)
  • Top 20: 63.6% (7/11)
  • Top 10: 54.5% (6/11)
  • Top 5: 36.3% (4/11)

The 22-year-old has been on an absolute tear since the month of August on both tours. In his last three appearances, he’s shot strictly in the 60s with two top 5s.

Hojgaard’s last three events

8/31 – 9/3Omega European Masters (DP)65-67-66-67T5
8/24 – 8/27 D+D Real Czech Masters (DP)65-67-69-693rd
8/3 – 8/6Wyndham Championship (PGA)68-66-69-67T14

Hojgaard ranks inside the top four in three of the six major categories on the DP World Tour this season.

Notable rank in DP World Tour stats

  • Scoring average: 2nd (69.51)
  • Strokes gained total: 4th (+1.66)
  • Strokes gained off the tee: 2nd (+0.90)
  • Strokes gained approach: 13th (+0.67)

The Billund, Denmark native has seen success before at Wentworth, with a T20 at the 2021 BMW PGA Championship. He’s also gained strokes (at least +1.49) in five of his past six starts.

At even money on Bet365, he is definitely more eye-catching than the other players at the price, thanks to his impressive form. Other oddsmakers gave him a line of -110.

Tommy Fleetwood to finish top 20 @ -143 (1.69)

Tommy Fleetwood is arguably the best player on the PGA Tour not to win an event. Somehow, he’s eluded holding a trophy come Sunday afternoon after many close calls throughout the years.

The DP World Tour has been a different story for the Southport, Merseyside, England product, having won six times on the circuit.

Fleetwood has been a model for consistency this year on the PGA Tour, recording 13 top 20s in 21 starts. Since the Valspar Championship in mid-March, his game has been even more razor-sharp, with 10 top 20s in his past 14 events. Throughout that span, he also earned eight top-10s and been 5th or better on five occasions.

Fleetwood’s top 20 finishing percentage on the PGA Tour

  • Top 20: 61.9% (13/21)

This percentage is high, and while it might not seem astronomically high, it holds more weight this week since he’ll be playing in a weaker field without many of the top Americans.

In two starts this season when playing in the U.K., Fleetwood earned a T6 at the Genesis Scottish Open and a T10 at the Open Championship. In the most prestigious events with the biggest stars, he’s played extremely well, as showcased below. The four majors are listed with the most recent at the top, as well as the PGA Tour’s two most important tournaments.

Fleetwood’s finishes at the biggest events on Tour

  • The Open: T10
  • U.S. Open: T5
  • PGA Championship: T18
  • Masters: 33rd
  • Tour Championship: T6
  • The Players Championship: 27th

The 32-year-old has played well at Wentworth, earning finishes of 13th and 12th in 2021 and 2020. During his past eight events, he’s picked up strokes in seven of them.

Playing in his home country should provide an edge, and the man many fans call “Fairway Jesus” ranked fifth on the entire PGA Tour in strokes gained (1.699) total behind only world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, world No. 2 Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele.

The odds of -143 provided by Bet365 for Fleetwood to end the tournament inside the top 20 are an excellent price when other sportsbooks are pricing him at -175.

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