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After Saturday’s third round of the BMW Championship at Olympia Fields Country Club in Illinois, top-ranked Scottie Scheffler and Englishman Matt Fitzpatrick share the lead (11-under) over the other 68 golfers in the field.
With eight players within four strokes of first place entering Sunday, there should be plenty of entertainment down the stretch. One stroke back is Open champion Brian Harman (10-under), who is followed by Max Homa (9-under), Viktor Hovland (8-under), and Rory McIlroy (8-under).
On Sunday evening, the FedEx Cup Standings will be complete and showcase who qualified for the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta next week. Three-time major winner Jordan Spieth is the biggest name in danger of missing out as he is currently in 31st.
We’ll provide one betting prediction below for a final-round head-to-head matchup.
BMW Championship day 4 tip: Matchup
The following pick is for the 18 holes played only on Sunday.
Lee Hodges over Seamus Power @ 4/5 (-125)
It’s been a bad few days for Lee Hodges and Seamus Power at the BMW Championship. The American, Hodges, sits in 47th at 9-over while the Irishman, Power, is in 48th at 12-over.
Hodges does stick out in this matchup due to being a better course fit at Olympia Fields Country Club and due to him playing a lot better golf over the past month than Power.
The Huntsville, Alabama native has actually performed better in two of the first three rounds at the BMW Championship compared to Power, with the two tieing with a 72 on Friday.
First three rounds at the BMW Championship
- Hodges: 74, 72 and 73
- Power: 76, 72 and 74
Hodges has endured an up-and-down season but has done better in recent weeks. He began to ramp things up at the Scottish Open, where he finished T12 and broke 70 in all four rounds. Two weeks later, he captured his first PGA Tour win at the 3M Open on July 30th by going wire-to-wire and crushing the field by seven strokes (24-under total).
Prior to the FedEx St. Jude Championship, a no-cut event, Power had missed three cuts in five starts. Aside from both players missing the cut in two of their past five shared tournaments, Hodges finished higher in three of them.
Hodges and Power’s last five shared events
|Tournament||Hodges’ Result||Power’s Result|
|FedEx St. Jude Championship||T31||T66|
|The Open Championship||MC||MC|
|Genesis Scottish Open||T12||Withdraw|
Olympia Fields plays similarly to Muirfield Village (The Memorial) and U.S. Open tracks. Hodges didn’t play in the U.S. Open, but both he and Power participated at the Memorial. Hodges finished T12 with rounds of 72, 69, 72 and 76, while Power ended in T41 with rounds of 70, 73, 75 and 74.
The University of Alabama product, Hodges, is also averaging 0.19 strokes better in final rounds this campaign than Power.
Final round scoring averages
- Hodges: 70.0 in 17 rounds (ranked 77th)
- Power: 70.19 in 16 rounds (ranked 101st)
Since the PGA Championship, Hodges has gained strokes (total true strokes gained via Data Golf) in eight of his last 10 events, including three of the past four. Power has gained strokes in six of his past 10 but endured a streak of strokes lost in five consecutive starts before that span.
Hodge’s true strokes gained total (last 10 events)
|Tournament||Hodges’ true SG total|
|FedEx St. Jude Championship||+1.09|
|The Open Championship||-3.21|
|Genesis Scottish Open||+1.63|
|Rocket Mortgage Classic||-0.79|
|RBC Canadian Open||+0.78|
|The Memorial Tournament||+2.34|
|Charles Schwab Challenge||+1.03|
Hodges also owns a lower overall scoring average in 2022-2023 than Power.
Scoring average (total)
- Hodges: 70.557 in 95 rounds (ranked 62nd)
- Power: 70.678 in 78 rounds (ranked 76th)
In the tweet below, PGA Tour data analyst Ron Klos gathered statistics regarding the players’ ceilings over four rounds. In the last 100 rounds, Hodges has a small edge over Power in this area. The data consists of the 100 rounds before last week’s St. Jude Championship.
With four guaranteed rounds in this week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship, a golfers ceiling becomes very important. While a player may have a poor round or two, if they have a spike performance in the other couple of rounds it can help boost their position up the leaderboard.… pic.twitter.com/qH94aeFOcC
— Ron Klos (@PGASplits101) August 9, 2023
With all the advantages Hodges holds, the 4/5 (-125) line provided by Unibet in favor of him outperforming Power on Sunday seems to be set at a decent price.
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