3M Open 2023 – Day 1 Betting Tip and Prediction

3M Open 2023 – Day 1 Betting Tip and Prediction
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The next stop on the PGA Tour’s calendar is the 3M Open hosted by TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. Tony Finau looks to defend his title this week (July 27-30) after defeating Sungjae Im and Emiliano Grillo by three strokes last year.

The field has been extremely weak in its past four editions, but this week, 11 of the world’s top 50 players in the Official World Golf Rankings will participate. The goal for many of them is to punch their ticket into the FedEx Cup Playoffs, which starts in two weeks. Only the top 70 in the FedEx Cup Standings qualify.

Finau, Im, Hideki Matsuyama and Cameron Young are the favorites to win the 3M Open, ranging from around 14/1 to 16/1, depending on the sportsbook. There will be plenty of chances to wager on the tournament, and we’ll provide one betting tip ahead of the first round, with more predictions to come throughout the event.

3M Open Day 1 Tip: Tournament Finish

The following pick is for the 72 holes played throughout all four rounds.

Nicolai Hojgaard to finish top 40 @ 11/10 (+110)

Nicolai Hojgaard has quietly put together one of the better seasons on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour.

The Dane is currently ranked No. 100 in the OWGR and has collected three top-five finishes this season on both tours. His best result came when he finished solo second at the Corales Punta Cana Championship (PGA Tour event) in late March.

Hojgaard is in excellent form and finished in a tie for 23rd at last week’s Open Championship at Royal Liverpool. In his start prior to the Open at the Genesis Scottish Open, he contended and ended in a tie for sixth.

Hojgaard has made 19 starts this season across both tours and missed just three cuts. In the 16 made cuts he’s made, the Dane has only finished outside the top 40 on two occasions.

Hojgaard results

  • Events: 19
  • Top 40s: 14
  • Top 40 percentage: 73.68%
  • Top 20s: 7
  • Top 5s: 3

The 22-year-old has been excellent in the strokes gained category. He’s only had 24 rounds measured on the PGA Tour, so he isn’t in the official rankings. Although, his strokes gained total of 0.766 would put him at No. 35, one spot behind Andrew Putnam (0.778) and one ahead of last week’s Open Champion Brian Harman (0.756 in 64 measured rounds).

Strokes gained and scoring average on the DP World Tour

  • Total strokes gained: 1.42 in 37 measured rounds (ranked 6th)
  • Scoring average: 69.98 in 45 total rounds (ranked 6th)

On the PGA Tour, Hojgaard’s scoring average is 70.09 in ten events. He hasn’t played enough rounds to be ranked in this department either, but his average would put him at 19th, right behind Tom Kim and above Harman.

Despite this being the Billund, Denmark native’s first start at the 3M Open, newcomers have had plenty of success, with the tournament being only four years old.

Three of the past four winners at the 3M have been bombers off the tee. Being a good ball striker (strokes gained: approach) is also important.

Hojgaard averages 315.1 yards off the tee on the PGA Tour, which would rank him tied for sixth among all players. His strokes gained: approach average of 0.411 would put him at 34th. He’s certainly a rising star, having won twice on the DP World Tour in the past two seasons.

The plus money odds on Paddy Power Sportsbook for him to finish top 40 are certainly a great value thanks to his form and being a course fit.

Full tournament logs and scorecards for Hojgaard’s PGA Tour and DP World Tour results can be seen below.

Hojgaard’s 2022-23 PGA TOUR Tournaments (H/T ESPN)
3/23 – 3/26

Corales Puntacana Championship

Puntacana Resort & Club (Corales Golf Course)
271-65-66-68270 (-18)$414,200
3/30 – 4/2

Valero Texas Open

TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)
T2872-70-69-72283 (-5)$55,922
4/20 – 4/23
3265-67-66-74272 (-16)
4/27 – 4/30

Mexico Open

Vidanta Vallarta
T3367-71-70-68276 (-8)$41,067
5/18 – 5/21

PGA Championship

Oak Hill Country Club
T5076-67-73-71287 (+7)$37,625
6/1 – 6/4

The Memorial Tournament pres. by Workday

Muirfield Village Golf Club
Missed Cut77-75152 (+8)
6/8 – 6/11

RBC Canadian Open

Oakdale Golf & Country Club
Missed Cut74-73147 (+3)
6/29 – 7/2

Rocket Mortgage Classic

Detroit Golf Club
T2167-68-67-71273 (-15)$99,587
7/13 – 7/16

Genesis Scottish Open

The Renaissance Club
T670-63-71-67271 (-9)$261,990
7/20 – 7/23

The Open

Royal Liverpool GC
T2371-70-69-74284 (E)$121,500
Hojgaard’s 2022-23 DP World Tournaments (H/T ESPN)
11/24 – 11/27

Fortinet Australian PGA Championship

Royal Queensland Golf Club
T5768-71-74-73286 (+2)
12/1 – 12/4
T1067-71-69-71278 (-4)
1/19 – 1/22
T1071-67-69-69276 (-12)
1/26 – 1/30

Dubai Desert Classic

Emirates Golf Club
T3870-69-72-70281 (-7)
2/2 – 2/5
T1371-66-67-73277 (-11)
2/16 – 2/19

Thailand Classic

Amata Spring CC
T570-66-64-71271 (-17)
2/23 – 2/26

Hero Indian Open

DLF Golf and Country Club
T3275-70-75-70290 (+2)
5/4 – 5/7
T573-68-71-65277 (-7)
7/6 – 7/9

Made in HimmerLand

Himmerland Golf & Spa Resort
Missed Cut71-71142 (+2)

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