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The International Cricket Council’s latest competition—the World Test Championship—is quickly beginning to look like a two-horse race in its 2022-2023 edition.
Six weeks ago, the race to be in the top two of the WTC standings and qualify for 2023’s final at Lords was looking to be an exciting one. Australia and South Africa stood neck-and-neck at the top of the table, with Sri Lanka, India and Pakistan nipping at their heels. Only England, New Zealand, the West Indies and Bangladesh had extinguished their chances of qualification already.
Now, just a few weeks later, it’s quite quickly looking much less competitive. While Sri Lanka have changed little and are still technically in with a chance of qualification, both South Africa and Pakistan have been shown wanting in series against Australia, England and now New Zealand. With six months to go until the WTC final, it’s already looking like Australia will play India for the glory of being only the second-ever World Test Champions.
South Africa Underwhelm in Much Anticipated Australian Tour
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For months, the cricket calendar has been heading towards South Africa’s tour of Australia. The last time these two sides were scheduled to meet in Test matches the series was cancelled due to Covid-19, so not only was this the first meeting in over five years, but it was to be a collision of the one and two sides in the WTC table. This was the series that would act as a litmus test for which of these nations was the favourite with only six months left in this cycle of the WTC.
Now, after less than two complete Test matches between the sides, it has become apparent that South Africa is well off the pace being set by Australia. In the first Test, South Africa were bowled out for under 200 runs—152 and 99 all out to be precise—and while Australia were also impacted by the tough batting conditions, they came away with a comfortable six wicket win. Currently the two sides are in the middle of the second Test match, which seems to only be headed one way as well—South Africa could only post 189 in their first innings, while Australia made 575/8d giving them two full days to bowl out the visitors.
From being neck-and-neck in the WTC table with Australia, to being bowled out for under 200 the seventh time in a row, South Africa have well and truly fallen out of the race for next year’s WTC final.
Pakistan Valiant, Yet Futile Against England
Pakistan’s fall over the last month hasn’t been as dramatic as South Africa’s, but it has had more of an impact on their positioning in the race for the WTC final.
Prior to their home series against England, Pakistan were well placed to make a deep push in this competition. They were sitting on four wins, three losses and two draws, with two home series coming up against England and New Zealand. Having only ever lost two Tests to England on Pakistani soil in history, no-one was expecting the result that occurred: England white-washed the series 3-0, sending Pakistan plummeting down the WTC table to seventh place, below even the West Indies.
While their WTC chances are now left in tatters, things could definitely have panned out differently for Pakistan. The home side were right there with England, scoring 1,894 runs across the series and at times well placed to win as they chased obtainable totals in both the fourth innings of the first two Tests. However, losses by 74 runs and 26 runs saw England win the series, and they were even more convincing in the final Test, winning by eight wickets.
Now, Pakistan are facing New Zealand, and look unlikely to salvage any pride or points, having conceded a first innings lead in the opening Test match despite posting 438 batting first.
The Path to the WTC Final
With South Africa and Pakistan all but dropping out of the race, only a handful of fixtures remaining before the WTC finalists are confirmed ahead of June’s final. It’s looking like Australia and India will be the two nations contesting the prize.
In Sri Lanka’s defence, they are still a chance of making the final as well. However, the Sri Lankans have a tough task ahead of them, playing two away Tests against New Zealand. If they win both and other results go their way, there’s a chance they could end with a high enough percentage to move from their current fourth place on the ladder into second spot.
Much of this will depend on next year’s pseudo WTC final; a four-Test series between Australia and India, in India. If a white-wash happens either way, the door could be opened for one of these two to fall out of contention. However, if there are draws or victories are shared, the WTC final at Lord’s in June should be an unofficial fifth Test of this series, with the winner getting a much bigger reward.
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