New Zealand vs England Prediction, Betting Tips and Odds – First Test

New Zealand vs England Prediction, Betting Tips and Odds – First Test

This Thursday, another exciting Test series gets underway. While India vs Australia was highly anticipated because of the fight for the No.1 ranking in Test cricket, New Zealand vs England is being looked forward to by cricket fans for entirely different reasons. With England having undergone a revolutionary transformation over the past 12 months at the hands of two Kiwis, Brendon McCullum and Ben Stokes now travel to New Zealand to see if they can defeat the land of their birth in their own backyard.

We look at the betting odds for the first Test match, and break down all the best bets to place ahead of the first ball being bowled on Thursday.

These odds from Ladbrokes  were correct at the time of writing.

  • New Zealand vs England first Test
  • 16th of February, 1:00 AM GMT
  • Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui, New Zealand

Pitch Report and Weather Conditions

The elephant in the room when it comes to the conditions is the fact that New Zealand has just been ravaged by the largest tropical cyclone in a century. While the storm has now passed and the weather is forecast to be fine for the start of this Test, the question of how damp the outfield will be remains—given large parts of it have recently been underwater.

Pitch-wise, the Bay Oval is typically high scoring in T20Is, the most common format played here. Expect swing with the pink ball, but even conditions for both sides.

New Zealand vs England – Match Predictions

Traditionally, England have dominated matches between the two nations, with 55 wins to New Zealand’s 12 since they first played in 1883. However, England have not won a Test series, or even a Test match, in New Zealand since 2008.

We say this week is when England’s losing streak will end, however. England are on a tear in Test cricket at the moment, having won nine of their past ten matches. New Zealand, on the other hand, have failed to back up the World Test Championship win, only winning two matches since the final in 2021. With a weakened bowling attack, the Black Caps will be ripe pickings for a confident English side.

New Zealand Top Run Scorer First Innings

Despite the fact we believe New Zealand will come out on the wrong side of this first Test, expect Kane Williamson to stand tall and get some big runs here. The top order batsman has three double centuries in the past three years, and is coming off a brilliant unbeaten 200 in Pakistan recently.

Playing at his home ground in Mt Maunganui, and no longer with the pressure of captaining the side, Williamson has every chance of being the Kiwi’s top scorer in both innings. Interestingly, all three of his recent double centuries have been scored in the first innings too.

Prediction: Kane Williamson to be New Zealand’s top run scorer in the first innings.

New Zealand Top Bowler First Innings

It’s no secret that New Zealand are struggling in the bowling department ahead of this Test, with three of their top choice fast bowlers unavailable. With a debutant likely to be named in the bowling line up for Thursday, expect Neil Wagner to stand up for his side and carry the brunt of the bowling load. He’s done this time and time again, and regularly performs for his nation when needed. Expect him to do it again here when his country are in dire need of a big shift from the fast bowler.

Prediction: Neil Wagner to be New Zealand’s top bowler in the first innings.

New Zealand vs England Preview

With these bets in mind, here’s a closer look at how each team is shaping up ahead of Thursday’s match:

New Zealand vs England

New Zealand

The Kiwis aren’t in great shape right now. Sure, they come back from Pakistan having drawn both their Tests, and looking like the better side, but their bowling attack is in tatters. With Trent Boult off-contract, Kyle Jamieson injured and Matt Henry unavailable due to his first child being born, New Zealand are likely to debut either Jacob Duffy or Scott Kuggeleijn. Neither have played at the Test level before, and will likely be easy pickings for the in-form English batters.

New Zealand predicted XI: Tom Latham, Devon Conway, Kane Williamson, Henry Nicholls, Daryl Mitchell, Tom Blundell (wk), Michael Bracewell, Tom Southee (c), Scott Kuggeleijn, Neil Wagner, Blair Tickner.


England, on the other hand, are firing on all cylinders. Stuart Broad and Jimmy Anderson are bowling like they’re in their early 20s, despite being 15 years on from that, while Harry Brooks and many of the other batsmen are in fine form. Having won nine of their past ten, and playing for fun with no WTC qualification on the cards, this is a dangerous looking team for New Zealand to face.

England confirmed XI: Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett, Ollie Pope, Joe Root, Harry Brook, Ben Stokes (c), Ben Foakes (wk), Ollie Robinson, Jack Leach, Stuart Broad, Jimmy Anderson.

How to Watch New Zealand vs England First Test in the UK: Live Streaming & Channel List

Those looking to live stream or watch the New Zealand vs England first Test on TV have several options:

  • BT Sports 1
  • Sky Sports Cricket

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