England vs Samoa prediction and odds – Rugby World Cup 2023

Pool D concludes this weekend with England safely qualified for the quarter-finals and the three sides below still battling for their final position.

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One of these such teams, Samoa, can no longer escape the group, after losing to Argentina and Japan, however can leap-frog the loser of their fixture to secure third place and automatic qualification for Rugby World Cup 2027 with a win at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Lille.

England vs Samoa match predictions

Historically, this has been a fixture dominated by England and the form guide seems to suggest another England win, however, the English may have already played their best rugby in Pool D and may have one eye on their approaching quarter-final, leaving them vulnerable to a Samoan surprise attack.

Samoa to win with a + 20.5 handicap @ 10/11 (1.90)

Samoa have been a lot of things at Rugby World Cup 2023, disappointing and underwhelming to name two, however, they have also been resolute defenders to name another, only conceding 19 points to Argentina and 28 to Japan. Similarly, England have looked very strong at Rugby World Cup 2023 but try-scoring is evidently not their strong point, scoring none versus Argentina.

England will win and it might be a comfortable one but a 21-point win does not seem likely.

Ben Earl to score the first try @ 11/1 (12.0)

As previously mentioned, this current England team are not known for scoring tries so it is hard to pick one person that will get over the line. Outside the Chile game most of their tries were scored by forwards, so Earl feels like a strong pick, especially as he has been one of England’s star performers at Rugby World Cup 2023 and often finds himself in the wide channels in attack.

Fir these reasons and because he has yet to score a try for England in 21 international caps, Earl must be due a try versus Samoa.

England vs Samoa preview – momentum required for England

In a fixture which carries with it plenty of bragging rights, Samoa could achieve one of the Rugby World Cup’s greatest ever upsets and send England spiralling into the abyss.


Though on the surface this game seems relatively meaningless, this game is huge for England. If they lose versus Samoa then they will almost certainly lose their quarter-final with Fiji as the knock to their confidence and belief will be immense. This game is huge for building momentum and if a big win is achieved, it will be a massive confidence boost going into a quarter-final fixture against a team who is probably better than them.


Samoa really have not fired at Rugby World Cup 2023. They had some hype after pushing Ireland in the warm-ups but none of that has materialised. Their loss to Argentina was a little disappointing but more so for the dire quality of the rugby on show. It culminated with their game versus Japan, a team they should have beat and did beat beat this year in the Pacific Nations Cup. Samoa, however, looked short of ideas and lost 28-22, ending their hopes of escaping the group.

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Beating England is their last hope of redemption but it is a fairly large one, they have never beaten England and a victory here at the Rugby World Cup would be massive for Samoan rugby and would probably transform their World Cup from a huge disappointment to a huge success.

England vs Samoa match details

  • Date and Time: Saturday 7th October, 16:45 GMT
  • Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille
  • How to Watch: See Here

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