Navratilova gave Rybakina “the edge” at the WTA Finals. Now Muguruza says the field is still “amazing”

Martina Navratilova picked Elena Rybakina as the player with “the edge” at the WTA Finals. Hours later Rybakina had pulled out, and tournament director Garbiñe Muguruza says the field is still strong enough that “every match could be a Grand Slam final”.

Navratilova’s pick

In a player-by-player preview on the WTA’s website, Navratilova wrote: “Overall, I’d give Rybakina the edge among all the players because of how consistent she’s been, but Sabalenka is right there.” She pointed to this year’s Indian Wells final as evidence of how little separates them: Rybakina had a match point against Aryna Sabalenka in March, and Sabalenka still came through to win the title.

The preview was written before Rybakina’s withdrawal, and an editor’s note on the page records that Marta Kostyuk has taken her place in the draw. Navratilova’s other verdicts now carry more weight.

• Coco Gauff: “The surface should suit her just fine.”
• Mirra Andreeva: “I thought she was going to win a major. I just thought it might happen next year, and she went ahead and did it this year.”
• Karolina Muchova: “This is the healthiest she’s been in a while.”
• Elina Svitolina: “There’s a freedom in being able to go out there and just play.”

Muguruza: “an amazing field”

Muguruza, a former world No 1 and the 2021 WTA Finals champion, told Reuters, in a report carried by the Straits Times, that she had spoken to Rybakina on Saturday. “She really couldn’t recover on time,” Muguruza said. “What we want is for her to feel good, to go rest, to recover. We don’t want her to feel like she has to play, only if she’s ready to.”

Rybakina, who has won two Grand Slam titles this season, had also withdrawn from the Tokyo quarter-finals in October with a neck injury. Muguruza acknowledged the loss of star power but insisted the event would not suffer: “I know our world No. 1 is not going to be able to play, but we have an amazing field, the very best. Every match could be a Grand Slam final. You really need to be ready. You cannot give one inch.”

Where the pick leaves the draw

Navratilova’s second choice was Sabalenka, and Muguruza noted the same thing from the ranking angle: “Of course, Aryna might be thinking that this can be a good opportunity,” she said, since the world No 2 can cut the gap to Rybakina at the top of the standings. Muguruza also picked out Andreeva as a player who is comfortable in the California desert.

Here the two views fit together rather than clash. Navratilova’s logic rested on consistency, and the one player who had it most is no longer there. What remains is the very thing Navratilova described in the Sabalenka entry: a field where small margins decide matches. If you want the format, groups and seedings in detail, our WTA Finals explainer covers them.

Kostyuk, who is making her debut in the Finals after a breakthrough year that included the Madrid title and a place in the top 10, now has the chance nobody expected her to get this weekend. Muguruza’s verdict on that was simple: “Marta is great. She’s had a breakthrough year.”