Tommy Paul vs Nicolas Jarry prediction and odds: Italian Open 2024

Tommy Paul vs Nicolas Jarry prediction and odds: Italian Open 2024
Photo by Icon Sport

The second semi-final of the Italian Open promises to be a very entertaining game. In case you’ve missed it – we have Tommy Paul vs Nicolas Jarry coming up soon, and one of these guys will battle it out for the title on Sunday. As for who this will be, my tennis predictions today reveal the answers. 

Our favourite Tommy Paul vs Nicolas Jarry predictions

I have to admit, I didn’t see Tommy Paul making the semis of this event before it started. Sure, he’s a very talented player, but he’s not an established clay courter. Of course, the opposite is true for Nicolas Jarry, who doesn’t really need an introduction as far as his clay court CV goes these days. 

With this in mind, I’ve looked at the statistics coming into this one, and I’ve landed on the following two markets for the highest-value picks:

Paul to win a set – yes @ 11/20 (1.55)

Tommy Paul has lost to Jarry on the clay in the past. And this obviously doesn’t bode too well for his chances of securing the win here. However, given how he has performed at the Italian Open this year, especially against Medvedev and Hurkacz, I can see him taking a set from Jarry. 

Three total sets @ 7/10 (1.70)

Since it can be rather tricky if a match goes to a third set in terms of picking a winner, why not cover this market instead? Of course, for this to occur, as long as these two guys split sets, the market will come through. And assuming Paul is able to grab a set from Jarry, I think this market has a great chance of producing a return.

Tommy Paul vs Nicolas Jarry odds

Unsurprisingly, the odds are stacked in favour of Jarry here. He has a 60% chance of winning this match, while Paul has just a 45% probability of securing a win.

Paul or Jarry to fight for the Italian Open title on Sunday?

Now you’re armed with my predictions for this game, let’s briefly look at the form and overall picture for each individual now.

Tommy Paul preview

Tommy Paul isn’t exactly a man who shines during the clay court season. He is ranked 16 in the world, however, so he can obviously play some serious tennis when he fancies it. As for his clay court results, he missed Monte Carlo and scored just one win in Madrid. But in Rome, he has stepped it up massively, which I think gives him an outside chance here.

Nicolas Jarry preview

Nicolas Jarry has finally made it into the semi-finals of a Masters 1000 event after taking out Stefanos Tsitsipas. This was a huge win, and he will certainly feel confident now he faces Tommy Paul – a man he has a winning record against. But after the Tsitsipas game, the question of how much he has left in the tank is one we are all asking.

Paul vs Jarry head to head

The H2H between these two doesn’t make for good reading if you’re a Tommy Paul fan, but it’s not terrible. Jarry has a 1-0 lead over Paul in the head-to-head department, and this was a four-set in at Roland Garros last season.

Key match details

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Photo by Icon Sport
  • Match Schedule – May 17th, 10:00 GMT
  • Venue – Rome, Italy
  • Viewing Options – Sky Sports, Tennis TV

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