Rafael Nadal vs Jordan Thompson prediction and odds: Brisbane International 2024

Rafael Nadal vs Jordan Thompson prediction and odds: Brisbane International 2024
Photo by Icon sport

Talk of Rafael Nadal’s Brisbane return has been rife for weeks, and it’s gone rather well so far. Yet now, he faces a confident Aussie in the form of Jordan Thompson. So, will it be Nadal who marches on to the semi-finals or can Thompson cause an upset? Find out through my Nadal vs Thompson predictions below.

Our favourite Rafael Nadal vs Jordan Thompson predictions

As you’d expect, Rafael Nadal is the favourite to take the win against Jordan Thompson in this quarter-final match at the Brisbane International 2024. In fact, he is so heavily favoured that backing the Spaniard for the win alone almost isn’t worth it. Therefore, I’ve analysed the other markets that are open for this game to create two valuable Nadal vs Thompson predictions ahead of this game:

Thompson +4.5 games handicap @ 1/1 (2.00)

Thompson opened his campaign in Brisbane with a solid win against Vukic in straight sets. He then received a walkover in the next round, so he will be fresh and eager to give Nadal a run for his money. Furthermore, he has produced big wins against the likes of Zverev in the recent past, and he has pushed guys like Alcaraz to three sets in 2023. So with home fans behind him, I can see him putting in an inspired performance.

Nadal to win 2-0 @ 8/15 (1.53)

Although I can see Jordan Thompson playing a great match against Nadal, I don’t see him pulling off the upset. In fact, if he pushes Nadal close, which I think he can do, I believe that Nadal will then raise his game at the end of the sets to score a 2-0 win.

Rafael Nadal vs Jordan Thompson odds

As expected, the probability of Nadal winning this one is very high at 87.50%. But for Thompson, his implied chances of winning are 18.20%.

Nadal gunning to keep dream alive for title-winning return in Brisbane

Nadal’s comeback has been rather inspired so far, and it’s been great to witness. However, let’s look at how things stack up with a quick preview to complement the predictions shared above.

Rafael Nadal preview

Most tennis fans know that Nadal missed almost the entire 2023 season through injury. Adding to that, the 2024 Brisbane International is his first competitive tournament in close to 12 months. But as seen with his straight-set wins against Thiem and Kubler, he is looking sharp in Australia.

Jordan Thompson preview

Jordan Thompson might be ranked significantly higher than Nadal at 55 in the world, but we all know the kind of tennis Nadal can produce. In fact, Jordan Thompson has felt Nadal’s wrath twice in the past, and the Aussie has yet to take a set from the Spaniard. 

Nadal vs Thompson head to head

As touched upon above, Nadal and Thompson have played each other twice before. Their first meeting was in 2020, when Nadal took Thompson out in the Paris Masters indoor event. After that encounter, they played in the 2022 Roland Garros event, and Nadal beat Thompson with the loss of just 6 games in that match (unsurprisingly).

Key match details

Thompson vs Nadal prediction Brisbane
Photo by Icon sport
  • Match Schedule – January 5th, 10:00 GMT
  • Venue – Brisbane, Australia
  • Viewing Options – Sky Sports, Tennis Channel

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