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The news that many people had hoped for has been made official. We will see the return of Rafael Nadal for the ATP Cincinnati event this week. Nadal has not played since his quarter-final battle with Taylor Fritz at Wimbledon. And as you may recall, he sustained an abdominal tear in the process of winning that match. Anyway, he is now making his return to the ATP Tour, and it would appear that the stars might just be aligning for him.
This week, Nadal does indeed have a shot at becoming the world’s best player once again. That might seem surprising since he hasn’t been competing. But I can assure you that the math checks out! Should Nadal manage to win the tournament, he has a shot to take back the top spot in the ATP rankings. However, simply winning the tournament isn’t enough. Medvedev has to fail to reach the quarter-final stage of the tournament.
So this part of the equation is completely out of Nadal’s hands. Anyway, with this in mind, what are the chances of this happening? Well, let’s take a look.
Nadal’s Chances of Regaining Top Spot – Slim but Possible
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To really understand the possibility of this happening, there are a few moving factors to look at. I’ve chosen to break each one of them down right here for simplicity. So please read on to gain an idea of whether Nadal really can become the world number one after the Cincinnati Masters:
Medvedev’s Draw in Cincinnati
With Daniil Medvedev being the current world number one, his Cincinnati draw is as you might expect. He has a bye into the round of 32, which means he only has to win two matches to make it to the quarter-final. Because of that, Medvedev doesn’t kick off his campaign in Cincinnati until tomorrow – August 16th. He faces Van de Zandschulp in the opener, which really, he should win.
Then he will face either Paul/Brooksby or Shapovalov/Dimitrov. Again, I’d fancy his chances against all of these guys. But anything is possible.
Nadal’s Draw in Cincinnati
Just like Medvedev, Nadal also has a bye into the round of 32. However, the obvious difference here is that Nadal needs to win the tournament, not just win a couple of rounds. This means he may need to squeeze past guys like Ruud, Alcaraz, Sinner, Auger-Aliassime, and several others. Of course, it’s Rafael Nadal we are talking about, so he’s always got more than a chance against anyone on tour.
Nadal’s Lack of Match Practice
One of the main factors that make me think this is a slim possibility is his lack of match practice. Having not played since Wimbledon, it goes without saying that he won’t be quite as match sharp as some of the others. Then again, this seemed to work out quite well for him back in January when he returned to the tour and won the Australian Open. So it remains to be seen how he is moving and hitting the ball.
But to conclude, it’s a tall ask for Nadal to win the tournament, period. And it’s even more unlikely that Medvedev will lose one of his two opening games.
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