Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev prediction and odds: Australian Open 2024

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The men’s final of the 2024 Australian Open is confirmed. It’s Sinner vs Medvedev in what should be a high-level encounter. But who will win the match and take home the glory? Check out my tennis predictions today for the answers.

Our favourite Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev predictions

Contents

1 Our favourite Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev predictions
2 Jannik Sinner for first slam or Daniil Medvedev for second?
3 Key match details

This is the first time that Jannik Sinner has reached a Grand Slam final. In contrast, it’s the sixth time that Medvedev has reached a Grand Slam final. However, this is the first final in which he won’t have to play someone named Djokovic or Nadal. I’m sure he considers this a positive thing, and who wouldn’t?

Then again, he is playing a guy who is in incredible form. So how are the markets looking, and what are the best bets to cover?

**Medvedev to win first set @ 13*/8 (2.63)***

In my opinion, experience will play a big role in this final. Sure, Jannik Sinner has played better than Medvedev throughout the tournament, as his results confirm. But with this being his first final, I believe he will be nervous at the start, which will open the door for Medvedev to take an early, one-set lead.

**Medvedev +5.5 games handicap @ 7*/10 (1.70)***

Calling the winner of this match is a very tricky one. As per the latest odds, Sinner is the favourite, and this made me look at the game handicap markets for value bets. For me, despite the hours he’s spent on the court, Medvedev still has a great chance to win this match, but the possible outcome is a coin flip.

Therefore, a safer play is to go for Medvedev to secure a margin of 5 games or fewer, which is very possible if he takes the first set.

Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev odds

The probability of Sinner winning this one is 74.10%. As for the chance of a Medvedev win, this is 32.30%.

Jannik Sinner for first slam or Daniil Medvedev for second?

Looking back at the Australian Open draw, it’s been a different journey to the finals for both of these guys. To add to that, let me give a quick preview for each player before things begin:

Jannik Sinner preview

Sinner has lost just one set all tournament, which came against Novak Djokovic in the semi-finals. This is his first Grand Slam final, however, so nerves will almost certainly play a role in his performance. But a positive thing for Sinner is that he has beaten Medvedev in their last three meetings.

Daniil Medvedev preview

Medvedev has a boatload of experience in Grand Slam finals compared to Sinner. This is his sixth slam final, and it’s his second in Australia. However, his path to reach this final has been extraordinary. He’s played three five-set matches in total (two in a row), and he’s overcome a two-set deficit twice. So the concern with Medvedev is fatigue, of course.

Sinner vs Medvedev head to head

Medvedev holds a 6-3 head-to-head record over Sinner. But Sinner has taken him out in their last three encounters, all of which were played in the second half of the 2023 season.