Iga Swiatek vs Sofia Kenin prediction and odds: Australian Open 2024

Iga Swiatek vs Sofia Kenin prediction and odds: Australian Open 2024
Photo by Icon sport

Looking to track down the best tennis predictions today for the 2024 Australian Open? I’ve got a few to share with you ahead of an intriguing first-round contest involving Iga Swiatek and Sofia Kenin. 

Our favourite Iga Swiatek vs Sofia Kenin predictions

As per my breakdown of the 2024 Australian Open draw this year, this is one of my shortlisted first-round picks. To clarify why – Swiatek is obviously the world number one and the favourite to win the tournament. However, while Sofia Kenin is ranked outside of the top 40 right now, she has won the Australian Open before!

Naturally, this makes my Swiatek vs Kenin predictions a little trickier than tips supplied for other first-round encounters. But regardless, let me share my tips right now:

Over 17.5 games @ 10/11 (1.91)

To state the obvious, Iga Swiatek is heavily favoured to win here, and the moneyline odds for this outcome are far from appealing. Therefore, we must be more creative, which has led me to the over 17.5 games market. And I’m suggesting this option because there will be first-round nerves for Swiatek, while Kenin is a previous champion who has nothing to lose.

Kenin +7.5 games handicap @ 8/13 (1.62)

Moving on from the over 17.5 games market, I noticed that the odds for such an achievable ‘games handicap’ for Kenin are quite staggering. For this option to come through, all Kenin needs to do is win 5 or 6 games, if she was to lose in straight sets. And for me, this is definitely possible.

Iga Swiatek vs Sofia Kenin odds

With 1/25 moneyline odds, the chance of Swiatek winning this one is 96.20%. As for Kenin, her probability of victory here is just 7.70%.

Swiatek looking to take out previous champion in round one

Want to learn just a little bit more about these players before making any wagers? Check out the previews below:

Iga Swiatek preview

Iga Swiatek is the one to beat this year at the 2024 Australian Open. She is the top seed, of course, and she is in great form at the moment. But interestingly, as much as she is a great hard-court player, her best performance at the Australian Open is a semi-final appearance in 2022.

Sofia Kenin preview

As stated previously, Sofia Kenin actually won the Australian Open in 2020. This puts her in a very unique group of players who are in the draw this year. However, it’s obvious that she’s been dealt a rather horrendous first-round draw – for the second year running. And at 41 in the rankings, she will need to overcome plenty if she is to stand a chance against the world number one.

Swiatek vs Kenin head to head

These two have played just one time previously. Interestingly, their one and only encounter was at Roland Garros in 2020, which Iga Swiatek won in straight sets. She then went on to capture her first Grand Slam title, so maybe this is a good omen for the top seed?

Key match details

Kenin vs Swiatek prediction Australian Open
Photo by Icon Sport
  • Match Schedule – January 16th, 01:30 GMT
  • Venue – Melbourne, Australia
  • Viewing Options – Eurosport, Discovery+

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