Iga Swiatek vs Jasmine Paolini prediction and odds: French Open 2024

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The women’s singles final for the 2024 French Open is approaching rapidly. This match involves the 1st seed, Swiatek, taking on the 12th seed, Paolini. Of course, you can check out all my tennis predictions today for this match right here.

Our favourite Iga Swiatek vs Jasmine Paolini predictions

Contents

1 Our favourite Iga Swiatek vs Jasmine Paolini predictions
2 Swiatek sets sights on French Open hat-trick
3 Key match details

Will Iga Swiatek secure her third straight French Open title in this match? Or will Jasmine Paolini produce one of the biggest upsets in Grand Slam history? I’ve assessed the form of both players and looked at their results in recent rounds, and I’ve landed on the following two markets for ‘value bets’ ahead of this final:

Over 16.5 games @ 10/21 (1.48)

In an ideal world, I’d go for Swiatek to win 2-0, but the problem is the odds just aren’t worth it. However, with 16.5 games as the benchmark for this market, I think it’s very possible for the match to have more games than this. In fact, for this to occur, Paolini just needs to win 5 games, which she could do given how she is playing.

Paolini +6.5 games handicap @ 23/20 (2.15)

If Paolini produces the kind of tennis she did in the quarter-finals and semi-finals, I firmly believe she can achieve this handicap against Swiatek. This doesn’t mean that I think she can win. But I do think she can take enough games from the world number one for this to be a winner.

Iga Swiatek vs Jasmine Paolini odds

Based on the latest odds for this final, Paolini has a 10.50% chance of winning this match compared with a 94.70% probability for Swiatek.

Swiatek sets sights on French Open hat-trick

Let me provide a quick preview for these two before we get to the final of Roland Garros 2024:

Iga Swiatek preview

Iga Swiatek has been truly ruthless all tournament long. She’s dropped just one set en route to the finals, which came against Osaka in the second round. Since then, she’s looked like the best player in the world by quite some distance. And in the two previous matches against Paolini, the results have been quite commanding in Swiatek’s favour.

Jasmine Paolini preview

While Paolini is the 12th seed for this tournament, I think we can all agree that we didn’t expect to see her in the final. However, she’s played quite amazing tennis at times, and she looks fearless out there – despite the fact she’s never gone this deep in a slam. And when you consider that she took down Andreeva 6-3 6-1 in her first Grand Slam semi-final ever, she might not be as nervous as many think for this match.

Swiatek vs Paolini head to head

As is usually the case when looking at Swiatek’s results against other WTA players, she holds a winning record over Paolini. She has played the Italian twice, and she has won quite comfortably both times. This makes the H2H 2-0 for Swiatek.