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Rybakina and Ostapenko face off in an unexpected quarterfinals encounter between two Slam winners. Sparks will fly in what promises to be a high firepower matchup featuring two of the heaviest hitters on the WTA Tour.
These odds from Ladbrokes were correct at the time of writing.
Elena Rybakina vs Jelena Ostapenko Match Predictions
In a tournament marked by the top seeded players dropping out in succession, the Slam winners added another two upsets to the count. Rybakina surprised Iga Swiatek, dispatching the WTA number 1 and pre-tournament favorite in straight sets. Not too long after that, it was Ostapenko’s turn to stun Coco Gauff with another victory in straight sets. Now, it’s time for these two big-time hitters to face off for a spot in the semifinals.
Rybakina -4.5 Games Handicap
Rybakina and Ostapenko both play an aggressive brand of tennis, going for winners but also making a decent number of unforced errors. It could either lead to a long and dragged out match or the other way around, with one of them wrapping things up quickly. The prediction is that Rybakina will be able to wrap this match in straight sets.
A -4.5 line looks daunting at first, but that’s effectively a two-break advantage. The Kazakh has allowed fewer break points (9) than her opponent (21) through the tournament, while neither has been very efficient saving them (33% apiece). Expect Rybakina to create more chances and pressure Ostapenko’s service games more often. Even if she ends up giving a break or two, there will be enough opportunities to pull ahead and cover the line.
Under 20.5 Games
This one is a bit riskier, but there is some logic behind it. If Rybakina manages to close the match in straight sets, keeping it under 20.5 games won’t be that much of a stretch.
Again, this relies on the Kazakh pressuring her opponent’s serve and scoring a decent number of breaks. Ostapenko’s serve continues to be her most glaring weakness six years after her breakthrough Slam title, and is one of the biggest reasons the Latvian wasn’t able to build up on the early success. It could prove to be her undoing once again, covering the under in this bet.
Elena Rybakina vs Jelena Ostapenko Match Preview
Now let’s take a look at how the Slam winners advanced to meet in the quarterfinals of Australian Open 2023:
The 2022 Wimbledon champion had a drop in performance following her maiden Slam title with a string of first round exits. But she seems to be back to the Major-winning form from a few months ago. Elena Rybakina has only dropped one set the entire tournament, which happened in her third round matchup versus the 2022 runner-up Danielle Collins.
Of course, her fourth round win over Swiatek in straight sets was the Kazakh’s tournament highlight thus far. She will be carrying some momentum going forward after knocking out the current number 1 and early Australian Open favorite.
After her win over Coco Gauff in the fourth round, Ostapenko told reporters that she can still compete with the very best on the WTA Tour. And it’s hard to disagree with the 2017 French Open champion. At the top of her game, the Latvian is undoubtedly among the best in the game. But consistency has been a major issue for the 25-year old.
Ostapenko went four years without advancing to week 2 of a Slam. She finally broke that streak by making it to the fourth round at Wimbledon last year. Ostapenko had not reached the quarterfinals of a Major since Wimbledon 2018. Just like Rybakina, the Latvian has only dropped one set thus far – in her second round win over Anna Bondar. She will also have plenty of momentum after the fourth round win over Gauff.
Rybakina vs Ostapenko Head to Head
This will be their third encounter on the WTA Tour. Ostapenko won the previous two matches in straight sets, at the Linz Open in 2019 and at the Eastbourne WTA 500 in 2021.
Elena Rybakina vs Jelena Ostapenko Match Details
- Can I watch the AO 2023 in the UK? Yes, the 2023 Australian Open action airs live on Eurosport (TV and streaming) and Discovery + (streaming) for UK viewers.
- Which court will host the match? The match will be played on the Roger Laver Arena in the Melbourne Park complex.
- What is the start time for the match? This match won’t start before 1:30 am GMT start.