Elena Rybakina vs Aryna Sabalenka prediction and odds: Madrid Open 2024

Elena Rybakina vs Aryna Sabalenka prediction and odds: Madrid Open 2024
Photo by Icon Sport

If you checked out my 2024 Madrid Open preview, you’ll know that Rybakina and Sabalenka were tipped to go far. But only one of these two players will make it to the finals. So, who will it be? Take a look at my predictions to find out.

Our favourite Elena Rybakina vs Aryna Sabalenka predictions

Arguably, this is the semi-final that we all wanted to see in the bottom half of the 2024 Madrid Open draw. Of course, this match shows the 2nd seed and defending champion, Sabalenka, going up against the in-form 4th seed, Rybakina. This will be their 9th meeting on the WTA Tour, and it promises to be a classic.

As for my tennis predictions today for this clash, I’ve highlighted and explained them here:

Sabalenka to win @ 4/5 (1.80)

Sabalenka has fought hard to reach this round of the Madrid Open. Sure, she hasn’t been in the best form up until the quarter-finals. But her demolition job of Andreeva last night was impressive, and it shows that she has timed it well in terms of producing her best tennis when it matters. For me, this suggests she’s ready to take out Rybakina tonight.

Sabalenka -0.5 games handicap @ 17/20 (1.85)

I’ve confirmed above that I think Sabalenka will beat Rybakina. And with just a -0.5 games handicap required for this market to pull through, there’s every reason to cover this one in addition to the defending champion winning the match.

Elena Rybakina vs Aryna Sabalenka odds

The latest odds suggest that Rybakina has a 51.30% chance of victory here. As for the probability of a win for Sabalenka, this is 55.60%.

Who has the will to reach the Madrid Open finals in this enticing game?

To go with my two predictions above, let me dive into some extra details for both players now.

Elena Rybakina preview

Rybakina is in fantastic form right now. She won the title in Germany prior to the Madrid Open, and she’s looked formidable on the clay once again this week. Additionally, she dismantled Sabalenka in their one and only meeting of the 2024 season, but this was on hard courts. On the clay, things will inevitably be much tougher.

Aryna Sabalenka preview

You cannot deny that Aryna Sabalenka is a fierce competitor. She gives it her absolute all each time she’s on the court, hence she is the world number 2 right now. Of course, she won the title here in 2023 too, so she clearly knows how to bring her A game in this event. And this suggests to me that she has a slight edge coming into this semi-final.

Rybakina vs Sabalenka head to head

These two have played many times on the WTA Tour, which isn’t all that surprising given their rankings. But as it stands, Sabalenka has the lead over Rybakina with a 5-3 head-to-head record. Then again, they’ve never faced each other on clay, so this will be a first.

Key match details

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Photo by Icon Sport
  • Match Schedule – May 2nd, 20:30 GMT
  • Venue – Madrid, Spain
  • Viewing Options – Sky Sports, Tennis TV

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