Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner prediction and odds: Miami Open 2024

Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner prediction and odds: Miami Open 2024
Photo by Icon Sport

The 2024 Miami Open is officially at the semi-final stage. It’s now that the top players in the competition have a chance to face one another, as identified in our initial Miami Open 2024 preview. As for this match, it’s Medvedev vs Sinner in a rematch of the Australian Open final, and I’ve got some predictions for you below. 

Our favourite Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner predictions

Believe it or not, Jannik Sinner has beaten Daniil Medvedev the last four times they’ve played. This obviously won’t fill Medvedev with confidence, although he is the defending champion in Miami. In fact, it was this tournament where Medvedev last beat Sinner in the 2023 final, which makes my tennis predictions today somewhat tricky.

Regardless, I’ve taken this information into account and come up with the following tips:

Over 21.5 games @ 8/13 (1.62)

Based on how tight their most recent encounter was, it seems logical to shoot for over 21.5 games in this match. That said, while Sinner beat Medvedev the last four times, the ones that have been played using ‘best of three’ scoring have all been over 21.5 games. Of course, this is a great indicator of what we can expect here.

Medvedev +3.5 games handicap @ 7/10 (1.70)

Given their recent history, and because Medvedev has been playing great tennis in Miami this week, I think this market has great value. This is especially true when you look at how many sets have finished 7-6 between these two in the three matches referenced above. Keep in mind that this market could join the other for a return too, which is always a good approach.

Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner odds

The odds for Medvedev to beat Sinner give him a 38.50% probability of making the final. As for Sinner, the implied chance is better at 69.20%

Can Medvedev overcome the demons from Melbourne to beat Sinner at the Miami Open?

The Australian Open final was more than two months ago at this point. So let’s take a look at how these guys have played since then.

Daniil Medvedev preview

Medvedev is ranked 4 in the world right now, just one place behind Sinner, who is ranked 3. He’s been in no mood to mess about in Miami this week either, as he’s made the semis without dropping a set. But Jarry did give him a scare in the last round, which could sharpen him up for this match.

Jannik Sinner preview

Sinner is the most in form player on the ATP Tour right now. His 2024 season has been quite remarkable really, as he’s lost just one match, which was to Carlos Alcaraz in the final of Indian Wells. However, Medvedev very nearly beat him in Melbourne, which makes this one an interesting contest.

Medvedev vs Sinner head to head

Medvedev holds a 6-4 head to head record against Sinner. That said, Sinner has beaten him in their last four meetings – three of these in 2032 and one in 2024.

Key match details

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Photo by Icon Sport
  • Match Schedule – March 29th, 18:00 GMT
  • Venue – Miami, USA
  • Viewing Options – Sky Sports, Tennis TV

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