Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic prediction and odds: ATP Finals 2023

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It’s finally time to share some ATP finals predictions for the knockout stages. This is the time of the event where the gloves come off, and my Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic prediction shows what the outcome could be. Read on for full details.

Our favourite Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic predictions

Contents

1 Our favourite Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic predictions
2 Master vs apprentice – who will reach the final in Turin?
3 Key match details

What a match-up we have to look forward to here. It’s the world number two, Carlos Alcaraz, going up against the world number one, Novak Djokovic. This is the fifth time these guys will face off in an ATP event. And having done some serious research, I’ve come up with my Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic prediction for this semi-final clash.

**Over 24.5 games @ 21*/20 (2.05)***

Whenever Djokovic and Alcaraz have played, it’s always been an epic battle. As for their two previous matches that were played in the ‘best of three’ format, both finished 7-6 in the deciding set. Subsequently, both have involved over 24.5 games, and this match is shaping up to be a very close one, no matter how you analyze it.

**Djokovic to win 2-1 @ 3*/1 (4.00)***

Since my first Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic prediction shows that I believe there will be over 24.5 games, naturally, this means that I expect the match to be a three-setter. Yet given his experience at the ATP Finals, I have to take Novak Djokovic as the ultimate victor. At the same time, I feel he still has the mental edge over Alcaraz thanks to his win against the Spaniard in Cincinnati.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic odds

With Alcaraz having 5/4 odds, he has a 44.40% chance of winning this match on paper. As for Djokovic, his implied probability is 63.60% based on the 4/7 odds.

Master vs apprentice – who will reach the final in Turin?

We’re almost ready to rumble, and you’ve got my Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic prediction locked in. However, an additional preview is necessary to give key information coming into this one:

Carlos Alcaraz preview

Alcaraz blew the group apart with a 2-0 win over Medvedev on Friday, and he played a great match, I must admit. Of course, he’s also beaten Rublev at the ATP Finals, but he did lose to Zverev in his opener. This means his form is decent but not incredible.

Novak Djokovic preview

If Sinner didn’t beat Rune on Thursday, Djokovic wouldn’t have qualified. This is true despite the Serbian winning two of his three group matches, and losing the other 7-6 in the third to Sinner. Anyway, he’s officially made it, although he has dropped a set in all three of his matches so far.

Alcaraz vs Djokovic head-to-head

Putting the Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic prediction aside, you should know that the head-to-head for these two is balanced at 2-2. They are split in Masters 1000 matches at 1-1, and they are split in Grand Slam matches at 1-1. But they’ve never played at the ATP Finals, and the outcome of this match will put one of them in the driving seat concerning the head-to-head records.