Carlos Alcaraz vs Facundo Bagnis Predictions and Odds: Miami Open

Carlos Alcaraz is back in action following his Indian Wells titles. ATP’s current number 1 will take on Facundo Bagnis. Check out the best predictions and odds for the match.

These odds from Ladbrokes were correct at the time of writing.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Facundo Bagnis Match Predictions

Alcaraz and Bagnis face off for a spot in the round of 32 at the Miami Open. The 19-year old is coming off a dominant showing at Indian Wells, which saw him not drop a single set on the way to win the first Masters 1000 tournament of 2023. Bagnis is making his first main draw appearance at a Masters 1000 tournament since last year’s Miami Open, and is coming off a win over Felipe Meligeni Alves in the round of 128.

Alcaraz -6.5 Games

Although this line hangs on the high side, Alcaraz’s superior form heading into the match makes it a real possibility. In order to cover the handicap, Alcaraz would need at least three breaks in total over the course of the match. If the ATP number 1 decides to speed the game and wrap this one up quickly, then he could very well win with a 7-game advantage.

Bagnis had some ups and downs in his win over Meligeni Alves, allowing five break points and giving up two breaks. If the Argentine’s inconsistency carries over to this match, then Alcaraz has every chance to cover the line.

Under 17.5 Games

Following the same logic, Alcaraz also has a very good chance of wrapping this match up in under 17.5 games. This line also relies on a one-sided match in Alcaraz’s favor. But given their current difference in form, Alcaraz can also cover this one.

The Spaniard covered that exact same line against Medvedev in the Indian Wells final, closing out the match in just 17 games.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Facundo Bagnis Preview

Here is how these two players have done to reach this round of 64.

Carlos Alcaraz

Back at the top for the first time since withdrawing from this year’s Australian Open, Alcaraz is ready to show the rest of the ATP Tour that he has no plans of relinquishing the number one spot.

The 19-year old prodigy did not drop a single set during the run. And, even more impressively, Alcaraz only allowed two breaks all tournament in what was only his second appearance since injuring his hamstring. After losing in the final at the Rio Open and withdrawing from Acapulco, it looks like Alcaraz is back to his old form, entering Miami as the undeniable title favorite.

Facundo Bagnis

The much more experienced Bagnis can still play at a high level. After a year without playing in the main draw of a Masters tournament, the 33-year old from Rosario made it to the main stage in Miami once again.

Bagnis had a tough round 1 matchup against Meligeni Alves, bouncing back from a 1-6 in the second set to wrap up the match in three.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Facundo Bagnis Head to Head

This will be Alcaraz and Bagnis’ second meeting at the ATP Tour level, and their fourth overall. Alcaraz has a perfect record against his opponent, winning all three previous matches. The Spaniard won at the Cordenons Challenger in 2020 and at the Oeiras Challenger #3 in 2021. In 2022, the two met for the first and only time at the Tour level, with Alcaraz winning at the Umag Open’s quarterfinals.

Match Details

Miami Open 2023
Mar 30, 2022; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; An overall view of the grounds and a portion of the circuit for the upcoming Formula 1 Miami Grand Prix running through the middle of the grounds at the Miami Open at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports/Sipa USA – Photo by Icon sport
  • When will the match be played? The match is scheduled for Friday, March 24th.
  • How can I watch the Miami Open in the UK? The match will be streamed on Amazon Prime for UK viewers.
  • Who do the bookies favor for this match? Carlos Alcaraz is the early favorite.