Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini prediction and odds – China Open 2023

A place in the quarter-final of the China Open is up for grabs as Aryna Sabalenka and Jasmine Paolini draw swords on Thursday. Which of these players will reign supreme when it’s all said and done?

Aryna Sabalenka
Photo by Icon Sport

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini – match predictions

As these players grace the Diamond Court on Thursday afternoon, these are our predictions and tips for this match

Jasmine Paolini to cover +6.5 games @ 7/10 (1.70)

It’s no surprise that Aryna Sabalenka is the clear favourite to win this match. She has eight wins in her last nine matches, with seven of those victories coming in straight sets. On top of that, the Belarusian is currently at the top of the WTA rankings. However, it’s important to point out that Jasmine Paolini has held her own against Sabalenka in the past; as she won two of three previous skirmishes between these players. In fact, the Italian player covered +4.5 games in all of her three meetings with Sabalenka. All things considered, we believe that Jasmine Paolini will do just enough to cover +6.5 games.

Over 18.5 total games @ 4/5 (1.80)

Next, let’s take a look at the over/under games market. It’s worth mentioning that the line for this match is set at 18.5, which we believe is a little low. For one, these players squared off against each other on three occasions, and all three clashes featured at least 20 games. Furthermore, all of Jasmine Paolini’s last four singles matches went above the 18.5 games mark. On that note, we are taking the over option here.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini odds

At 1/12 (1.08), Aryna Sabalenka is the favourite to win this match with a 92.3 percent probability. On the other hand, the bookies give Jasmine Paolini a 7.7 percent chance to win this match.

The odds in this article were correct at the time of writing, and the odds are subject to change. We recommend checking with your bookmaker before placing a bet.

Can Sabalenka tie the head-to-head between these players?

Now that we’ve sorted out our Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini predictions, let’s see how these players fared in the previous rounds of the China Open.

Aryna Sabalenka

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Katie Boulter and Sofia Kenin in the previous two rounds, both in straight sets. The Belarusian has now won eight of her last nine matches in all competitions. Sabalenka will be eyeing a quarter-final spot, and she’ll fancy her chances against Jasmine Paolini.

Jasmine Paolini

On the other hand, Jasmine Paolini is coming off back-to-back three-setters against Yue Yuan and Beatriz Haddad Maia. Compared to these players however, Aryna Sabalenka will be a relatively bigger fish to fry. It’ll be interesting to see how Paolini matches up against the current World number 1.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini head to head

This will be the fourth encounter between these players. Interestingly, despite being the underdog in today’s match, Jasmine Paolini currently leads the head-to-head between these players with two wins from three.

Key match details

Jasmine Paolini
Photo by Icon Sport
  • Venue: Diamond Court
  • Time and date: Thursday 5th October, not before 12:30 BST.
  • Bookies’ favourite: Aryna Sabalenka, by a wide margin.

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