Alexander Zverev vs Rafael Nadal prediction and odds: French Open 2024

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The first round we’ve all waited for since the draw was done is officially here. It’s time for Zverev vs Nadal in what could be the last time we ever see Nadal at the French Open. As for my tennis predictions today for this clash, I’ve discussed them below.

Our favourite Alexander Zverev vs Rafael Nadal predictions

Contents

1 Our favourite Alexander Zverev vs Rafael Nadal predictions
2 Who will snatch a win in the battle of the heavyweights here?
3 Key match details

Is there anyone who isn’t talking about this match right now? When the draw came out, nobody could quite believe it. In a repeat of the 2022 semi-finals, it’s Zverev vs Nadal in the opening round of Roland Garros. Yet, unlike in 2022, Zverev comes into this game as the heavy favourite, which I’ve factored into the following two predictions:

Nadal to win a set – yes @ 8/15 (1.53)

The odds on offer for Nadal to take just one set from Zverev are more than enticing, in my opinion. While I think Zverev will win the match, we are talking about the greatest clay court player of all time here. And if he digs deep, I am sure he can snag a set from the German.

Zverev to win 3-1 @ 29/10 (3.90)

For my second prediction, I’m shooting for a much better return than the first market. Naturally, picking Zverev to win in four sets is a little riskier, but it still has a good chance. In fact, if Nadal snags a set, I think the physicality could be too much for Rafa, and this would help Zverev sail to a four-set victory.

Alexander Zverev vs Rafael Nadal odds

The odds ahead of this match demonstrate that Zverev has a 77.80% chance of winning, while the implied probability for Nadal is 28.60%.

Who will snatch a win in the battle of the heavyweights here?

Let’s leave predictions in the rear-view mirror now and take a look at both Zverev and Nadal coming into this match.

Alexander Zverev preview

As the recent winner of the Italian Open, it’s normal that Zverev is favoured by many to win this match. To be honest, I agree with that opinion, as he is looking fit, he’s in form, and he will no doubt be confident going up against Rafa. At the same time, if he can produce the kind of tennis he did when they last met in Paris, you’ve got to take Zverev for the win.

Rafael Nadal preview

As I’ve said time and time again – you can never write Rafael Nadal off at the French Open. He obviously has special memories here, and when he enters the court at this venue, he almost becomes a different player. But he hasn’t looked like beating a player of Zverev’s calibre in the build-up to Roland Garros, and his fitness is obviously a big worry.

Zverev vs Nadal head to head

Nadal has the edge over Zverev when it comes to head-to-head records. The Spaniard holds a 7-3 record against Zverev. However, for the last five matches, it’s Zverev who has a 3-2 winning record over Nadal, which does hold weight coming into this match.