Paris Masters: one point separates De Minaur and Jodar in the race for Turin

One point separates Alex de Minaur from Rafael Jodar in the race for the last place at the ATP Finals, and Novak Djokovic and Taylor Fritz are only a few hundred points further back. The Paris Masters, which starts on Monday 2 November, will settle who joins Alexander Zverev, Carlos Alcaraz, Ben Shelton and Daniil Medvedev in Turin.

How the race works this year

Eight players qualify for the ATP Finals, which run from 15 to 22 November. With Jannik Sinner ruled out by a knee injury, the player who finishes ninth in the Race to Turin takes a place. That turns the cut-off line into a very narrow target, and it explains why one point matters so much.

Where the race stands

According to Tennis365’s table after Saturday’s semi-finals, the order is:

• Zverev: qualified
• Sinner, 7,950: not competing
• Alcaraz, 4,930: qualified
• Shelton, 4,530: qualified
• Medvedev, 3,860: qualified
• Flavio Cobolli, 3,690
• Arthur Fils, 3,525
• Frances Tiafoe, 3,380
• Alex de Minaur, 3,210 (the ninth and last qualifying place)
• Rafael Jodar, 3,209
• Novak Djokovic, 2,890
• Taylor Fritz, 2,885

Cobolli, Fils and Tiafoe are yet to confirm their places. De Minaur, who reached the Vienna final, would move to 3,380 points by winning it on Sunday, level with Tiafoe.

Djokovic’s difficult road

Djokovic is 11th after his defeat by Jan-Lennard Struff in Basel, which we covered when he said “it hurts that I lost”. Tennis365 reports that he needs to reach the semi-finals in Paris, and the draw is unkind. He opens against Valentin Vacherot, whom he has never beaten on the ATP Tour, having lost their only match at the Shanghai Masters. A win would likely set up Luciano Darderi in the second round and De Minaur in the third. A quarter-final against Zverev would follow. In Tennis365’s words, beating those four back to back without a day off would be “incredibly challenging” for a 39-year-old.

Fritz and the long shots

Fritz is 12th, 325 points behind De Minaur, after losing the Basel semi-final to Vacherot 7-6(5), 6-3. He has qualified for the ATP Finals in three of the previous four years, reaching the final in 2024. His hopes, in Tennis365’s reading, depend on a strong run in Paris and early exits for those above him.

What each player needs

• De Minaur: the Vienna final is worth up to 170 more points, and a strong run in Paris would make him hard to catch.
• Jodar: he is one point away, so any extra round in Paris could decide his position.
• Djokovic: 320 points behind De Minaur, and a semi-final at least, per Tennis365.
• Fritz: 325 behind, needing results elsewhere to go his way as well.
• Cobolli, Fils and Tiafoe: inside the places, but unconfirmed.

Why it matters

The ninth place is only available because of Sinner’s injury, so the player who takes it will be doing so in unusual circumstances. It also adds a sharper edge to a week that begins with Zverev arriving in Paris as the new world No. 1; our explainer on how the ATP year-end No. 1 is decided sets out how that title works. The race will be settled within a week, and with a point between ninth and tenth, a single set in Paris could decide it.