Steve Johnson has given up waiting for Novak Djokovic’s next big title. On the latest episode of the Nothing Major podcast, the former American player said Djokovic is no longer “in contention” for the sport’s biggest prizes. His co-host John Isner was not ready to go that far.
What Johnson said
Johnson admitted he had expected Djokovic to qualify for the ATP Finals. “I am going to be honest guys, I was very bullish on Novak the last six weeks when he was saying, ‘I want to make Turin’. I was thinking he is going to make it; it’s Novak. Why would I think otherwise? He wins Beijing, and then you think Novak is right here,” he said, in remarks reported by Tennishead.
The weeks that followed changed his mind. “Not a great loss in Shanghai after that; loses to Struff, loses to Rinky Hijikata. I think it’s official for me that Novak is not in contention for any big tournaments anymore. I’m done. You never count him out, but I am starting to feel like 25 is not happening.”
The record gives Johnson some ground. Djokovic’s last “big” title was the Olympic gold in Paris in 2024. Since then he has lost two Masters 1000 finals and a Grand Slam final, and his autumn swing ended with a 2-3 run after he won the China Open in Beijing. He missed out on Turin as a result.
Isner: “I am pumping the brakes”
Isner, a Wimbledon semi-finalist in 2018, thought the verdict was too sweeping. “I don’t think that’s fair. I think it’s hard at this age to put together successive good results. That is what we saw in Asia. Your body just can’t back that up at 39 years old, even Novak,” he said.
His argument is about format rather than form. “But during the course of one tournament, where you are solely focused on one tournament, and you have a lot of adrenaline… It’s not an outlandish statement by you by any means, but I am pumping the brakes on it, because he has his favourite Slam in two months’ time in Australia.”
There is evidence for that too. Djokovic beat Jannik Sinner in the semi-finals of the Australian Open in January, then led Carlos Alcaraz by a set before losing 6-2, 2-6, 3-6, 5-7. Melbourne, where he has won the title a record 10 times, is the one event where his body has repeatedly found a way to last a fortnight.
Two different questions
The disagreement is narrower than it sounds. Johnson is judging Djokovic on what happens week to week on the tour, where back-to-back matches against younger opponents are now a struggle. Isner is judging him on a single, carefully prepared major, where rest days and experience count for more.
Both can be right. A player who can no longer string together results across an Asian swing can still produce seven good matches in Melbourne if he arrives fresh. The question is whether Alcaraz, and a fit Jannik Sinner, leave room for that. Sinner, out since Wimbledon with a knee injury, told a press conference in Milan this week that “the goal is Australia”, so Djokovic may have to get past both of them again.
Johnson is also not the first to doubt him this autumn. Jim Courier said he had stopped second-guessing what drives Djokovic, while Greg Rusedski suggested he would need some luck to reach 25, as we covered on Monday.
What comes next
Djokovic will not be in Turin, but he is due to face elite opposition again at the Six Kings Slam in Riyadh, which starts on 27 December, alongside Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev, Sinner, Taylor Fritz and Alex de Minaur. The Australian Open begins on 17 January.
Our verdict
Johnson’s “I’m done” is a reasonable reading of the last two months, but Isner has the stronger case for January. Djokovic’s results at 250, 500 and Masters level have dipped, yet he was one set from a 25th major in Melbourne this year. Writing him off on the evidence of Basel and Paris is premature; writing him off after a poor Australian Open would be much harder to argue with.
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