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Watford are possibly the most ridiculed football club in the country for the way they operate a revolving door policy on their managers. The Hornets though are slow moving compared to 10 Downing Street right now with Liz Truss resigning from her post as Prime Minister after just 45 laughable days in charge. Still, with rapid change comes opportunity and the bookies are offering markets on who the next Prime Minister will be.
Next UK Prime Minister: What do the odds tell us?
*odds subject to change
As you can see from the tweet below, even politics experts use betting odds as guidelines for who is the most likely candidate to be the next Prime Minister.
❓ According to odds given by bookies, Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt are the most likely contenders to take over.
But with Boris Johnson expected to run too – who could be our next Prime Minister?
🧵https://t.co/1xHkQdII0Z pic.twitter.com/fPXhWC9VvY
— Telegraph Politics (@TelePolitics) October 20, 2022
Indeed, some bookmakers and betting exchanges are specialised in political betting.
Here we look at the front runners in the race to be the next Prime Minister.
Rishi Sunak: 63.6% chance
Rewind just a few weeks and Rishi Sunak was overlooked as Conservative party leader with the Tories instead opting to appoint Liz Truss to the post. After Truss’ tragic budget crippled markets, squashed the pound and generally whipped up a storm with the majority of the UK public, Sunak looked something like a budget Mystic Meg with previous claims that Truss’ economic plans would do exactly what they did – cause chaos.
The former Chancellor of the Exchequer, who served under Boris Johnson’s regime, is widely seen as the safest pair of hands the Conservative party now have. He is odds on favourite right now.
Odds: 4/7 with bet365
Place the bet at bet365Boris Johnson: 28.6% chance
Is that sick I taste in my mouth? The idea of Boris Johnson marching back into Number 10 just a matter of weeks after his cringey Terminator exit speech is something that won’t sit well with the masses in the UK. For the Tory party members though the bedraggled former leader is seen as a genuine contender – and the bookies agree hence he’s second favourite.
He’s already been publicly backed by the likes of Dominic Raab and Jacob Rees-Mogg. It’s not impossible he gets back in the door but after shafting the public, deceiving MPs and breaking the ministerial code – and law – countless times during his previous tenure the risk of civil unrest is something that won’t go away.
Odds: 5/2 with bet365
Place the bet at bet365Penny Mordaunt: 16.7% chance
In some ways, Penny Mordaunt might be the safest bet the Conservative party have. Despite over a decade as MP and having held various high ranking positions within the House of Commons and government, her profile isn’t as well known as the Sunak’s and Johnson’s of this world. That might at least buy her five minutes to get her feet under the Downing Street table.
The trouble is, she’ll need to acquire at least 100 votes of confidence and, based on what we know, her fellow Tory party members don’t seem keen. Nor will the general public be when her profile naturally increases; she’s a Brexiteer, against taking action to ease Climate Change and she voted against the Marcus Rashford initiative to feed hungry children. That isn’t the sort of character that will rebuild a fractured government.
Odds: 5/1 with bet365
Place the bet at bet365Kier Starmer @ RequestaBet (best guess 50/1)
Kier Starmer is the most vocal voice on the opposition right now and is loudly backed by high profile Labour party member, footballer and ‘voice of the people’ Gary Neville. If the public had a say in the matter, Starmer feels like a shoo-in. The trouble is, for that to happen, we’d need a general election. Will that happen before a Conservative leader is appointed? It’s highly doubtful with an absolute landslide defeat for them being predicted in the polls.
Even with the long odds Starmer is available at, it doesn’t feel like a good value bet. When the next election does roll around though, don’t be surprised to see him heavily odds on.
Look for the Request A Bet option at Sky Bet
Next British Prime Minister betting: Our conclusion
With all the above considered, it is fair to say that the leadership race seemingly looks like a two-horse race. Unfortunately for the Tories though, most of the public would seem to think that all their runners are ready to be taken out the back! For now though, the circus will continue – it’s just a case of who will be the chief Clown.
Top Politics Betting Sites
If you’re looking for politics betting sites, we recommend Smarkets and bet365. Both have made a name for themselves, not only within UK politics but also international markets.
